Company Report

FY25-26 Outlook: Presales: VND 5,733bn in FY25 (+9x YoY from low base), VND 6,961bn in FY26 (+21% YoY), supported by Gladia and upcoming launches. FY25 revenue forecast at VND 5,523bn (+68% YoY), NPAT-MI VND 986bn (+22% YoY), driven by Gladia low-rise handovers and The Privia project. FY26 revenue and NPAT-MI projected at VND 5,806bn (+5%YoY) and VND 1,107bn (+12% YoY).

Project Pipeline: Gladia: 226 low-rise units launched in Oct 2025 (100 units sold, VND 4,000bn). High-rise component (616 units) presales expected in 3Q26. Binh Trung Dong Expansion & Solina (P1): Land clearance completed; launches expected from 2027.

Valuation & Investment View: Upgrade from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM. New 1Y target price: VND 39,800/share (+15% upside), reflecting stronger execution and clearer development plans.

Risks: Large unit sizes and rising supply in 2026 may pressure absorption rates.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating but raise the 12-month target price to VND 14,500/share (from VND 12,800), implying a modest 2% upside. Our valuation horizon is rolled forward to 2026, with NPATMI estimate in that year largely unchanged. Despite projected challenges in 2026, we expect 4Q25 earnings to deliver positive growth.

2025-2026 outlook: We revise 2025 NPATMI upward by nearly 3x, reflecting the delayed earnings contribution from Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (now expected in 2026). For 2026, we forecast NPATMI to decline 79% YoY, despite a 12% YoY EBITDA increase, primarily due to the commencement of Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 plants. Long-term view remains positive, as this marks Vietnam’s first LNG-fired power project.

PNJ is well-positioned to capitalize on Vietnam’s evolving gold market, supported by regulatory tailwinds. Retail sales growth remains tepid at 4.3% YoY in 3Q25, reflecting soft consumer demand amid elevated gold prices and limited supply. Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise through 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. While this may dampen the overall jewelry demand, PNJ could gain market share by securing sufficient gold inventory.

The newly enacted Decree 232/2025/ND-CP allows private firms to produce gold bars and import gold materials, easing supply constraints. PNJ has met key eligibility criteria and is preparing its gold import quota application, due November 15^th. Approval (expected by December 15^th) would enable the company to leverage the new framework and support stronger sales.

Supported by improved retail and gold bar sales driven by expected gold import quota allocation, we forecast net income of PNJ to reach VND 2.68 tn in 2026 (+10% YoY), outperforming the 2% YoY growth forecast for 2025 (excluding one-off items in 2024). By rolling-forward our valuation from 2025F to 2026F, we increase 1Y target price to VND 109,000 per share (from VND 97,500). With a potential upside of 22%, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for PNJ. The company has returned to a positive earnings trajectory from 3Q25, and its 2026 P/E of 12.3x remains attractive compared to the historical average of 18x.

Vinamilk delivered a stronger-than-expected 3Q25 performance with revenue of VND16.97tn (+9.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND2.51tn (+4.5% YoY), marking its first earnings recovery after four quarters of decline. The company achieved 72% of its revenue and 68% of profit targets for 2025, supported by robust exports, improving domestic demand, and disciplined cost management. Modern trade and company-owned stores grew at double-digit rates, offsetting the weaker general-trade channel.

Exports outperformed, with international sales up 32.6% YoY (+25.7% FX-neutral) to VND3.46tn, led by Cambodia. Export contribution reached 20.4% of 9M25 revenue, up 240bps YoY. Gross margin expanded 60bps YoY to 41.8%, aided by lower input costs and better operating leverage.

Vinamilk recorded a one-off associate loss from the Miraka Holding write-off but continues to optimize its portfolio. While 4Q25 is expected to benefit from stable raw material prices and continued export strength, a full domestic recovery hinges on general trade normalization and post-typhoon demand recovery.

We maintain our 2025 forecast which calls for revenue of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), with a 2026E NPAT of VND9.5tn (+2.6%). We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating, with a DCF/PER-based 12-month TP of VND65,000/share (14% upside; 7.5% dividend yield).

Sabeco reported 3Q25 net sales of VND6.4tn (-16% YoY, -5% QoQ), marking the third consecutive quarter of volume contraction as weak consumer sentiment and intensified competition continued to weigh on demand. However, Sabeco’s gross profit reached VND2.39tn (+4.7% YoY) in 3Q25, supported by lower malt and rice costs, improved material efficiency, and favorable hedging under ThaiBev’s group procurement. Reported margins remain inflated by consolidation effects but indicate underlying cost discipline.

For 9M25, revenue reached VND19.1tn (-17% YoY) and NPAT VND3.36tn (flat YoY), completing 43% of revenue and 71% of profit targets for 2025. Despite near-term headwinds from post–price-hike softness and weather disruptions, management reaffirmed market leadership and accelerated distribution expansion, adding over 20,000 new general trade outlets through “Project Lightning Strike” and cash-van initiatives.

We fine-tune up our 2025E revenue by 3% to VND27.0tn (-15% YoY), and raise our NPAT by 7% to VND4.55tn (+1% YoY) on better cost control. For 2026, we project revenue of VND27.6tn (+2% YoY) and NPAT of VND4.6tn (+2% YoY), supported by gradual consumption recovery and lower input costs.

Our 12-month target price remains VND55,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 17x target P/E. At the current price of VND46,800, SAB trades at 14x 2026F P/E and offers a 9% dividend yield. With 18% upside potential to our TP, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 80,000/share (implying a 24% upside), as we do not revise overall 2026 earnings estimate significantly.

9M25 summary: Strong hydropower, new projects added into the investment pipeline

Earnings slightly exceeded our forecasts, due to provision reversal in solar power projects and slightly higher-than-expected occupancy level from the office buildings portfolio.

•           The hydropower performance was in line with our expectations, despite 3Q25 volume outperformance, placing a growth pressure for 2026.

•           REE obtained investment policy approval regarding V1-3 Phase 2 and V1-5 & V1-6 Phase 2 wind power projects (located in Vinh Long province), targeted to commence operation in 4Q26.

•           By end-3Q25, E.town 6 office building (E.town 6) achieved nearly 50% occupancy (vs. a modest level at end-2024).

•           As expected, M&E services witnessed a recovery (especially from 3Q25).

2025 earnings forecast: following 9M25 results, we increase NPATMI by 6%.

2026 outlook: We forecast revenue of VND 11.3 tn (+20% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+17% YoY).

3Q25 Profit Recovery from Last Year’s Low Base: In 9M2025, OIL reported revenue of VND 105.5 tn, up 11% YoY. PBT decreased 6% YoY to VND 460 bn, mainly due to a 34% decline in 1H2025 when global oil prices dropped sharply. However, in 3Q25 alone, PBT surged 219% YoY, showing a clear recovery from the weak base of Q3/2024.

Volume Growth Driven by COCO Store Expansion: During 9M2025, OIL’s total domestic fuel sales volume reached 4.15 million m³/tons, up 4% YoY. Sales through the COCO channel (company-owned, company-operated stores) rose 11% YoY to 1.0 million m³/tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic retail volume. As of September 2025, OIL had opened 80 new COCO stores and targets a total of 112 openings for the year. Consequently, the COCO network is expected to reach around 950 stations by year-end, up 13% compared to the beginning of the year.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of CTR, with 12-month target price of VND 102,000/share (representing 14% upside), on the back of nearly unchanged 2025-2026 earnings forecasts.

9M25 results summary and 2030 target

•           CTR sustained double-digit earnings growth (+12% YoY) during 9M25, in which infrastructure leasing continued to be the segment that witnessed the most solid expansion (+41% YoY revenue growth).

•           Base transceiver station (BTS) construction progress remains on track.

•           Being a reputable solar energy solutions provider, CTR achieved 45% national market share.

•           By 2030, management targets to scale operations across every segment while also exploring new investment opportunities.

Strong 3Q25 Performance. Net sales reached VND 482 billion (+38% YoY), driven by higher rubber output (+25% YoY), improved selling prices (+4.9% YoY), and a surge in rubber wood liquidation (+67% YoY). Net income soared to VND 154 billion (+153% YoY), the highest in three years.

 Robust 4Q25. 4Q25 net profit is projected at VND 206 billion (+160% YoY), fueled by land transfer revenue from Bac Dong Phu Industrial Park (317 ha at VND 1 bn/ha), offsetting a 15% YoY drop in rubber prices. For 2026, revenue and net profit are forecast to hit VND 1,445 billion (+25 % YoY), supported by an 8% increase in rubber volume and a 3% rise in prices.

Long-Term Growth Strategy. DPR benefits from converting rubber land into industrial parks, leveraging land scarcity for sustainable growth.

Investment view: DPR’s extensive land bank offers strong potential for industrial park conversion, especially as demand in Binh Phuoc rises amid high occupancy in nearby provinces. Upcoming infrastructure projects further enhance its outlook. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 46,100 target price (+18% upside).

Reiterate BUY call. Post the 3Q25 results, we roll over our valuation basis to end-2026 using same multiple targets and derive our 12-month TP of VND35,000/share (c.34% upside potential), from VND33,000, based on PER and EV/EBITDA methodology. Catalysts for the share price include: strong 4Q25 earnings delivery with growth of 47% YoY, IPO of HPA and stronger-than-expected steel prices.

3Q25 earnings release: consolidated revenue of VND36.4tn (+7.2% YoY and +1.4% QoQ), NPAT of VND4tn (+32.8% YoY and -5.9% QoQ), slightly lower than our expectation.

We revise down our 2025E NPAT to VND16.5tn (from VND17.1tn), up 37% YoY, on our lower rebar and HRC volume assumptions. We slightly reduce our 2026E NPAT to VND21.2tn (from VND22tn), up 29% YoY.

Downside risks to our call: lower-than-expected steel prices, and sudden input price surge

As the share price rose 7% since our previous update, we lower our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM for FPT, with the unchanged 12-month target price of VND 120,000/share, representing a 17% upside. Our 2026 earnings projection also remains nearly the same. 2025-2026 outlook: While macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to remain significant, we anticipate a solid NPATMI growth of 19% YoY in 2025. For 2026, we expect a steady recovery from the technology segment, reflecting the recent rebound in signed contract value, although uncertainties may persist. Combined with the difficulties in the education segment, we are concerned that the earnings growth may not match 2025 level, but it should remain at double digits. Specifically, we forecast 2026 revenue of VND 79.5 tn (+14% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 10.7 tn (+14% YoY). Unlike 2025, we believe that the technology segment will resume its role as the primary growth driver in 2026.

HT1 reported an appreciable 3Q25 YoY revenue growth of 15.3% to VND 2,037 bn, as well as a strong NPATMI recovery of VND 85.7 bn (+279.9% YoY). Gross profit reached VND 241 bn (+49.1% YoY), with GPM easing slightly to 12.9% from 14% in 2Q25. This performance came primarily from a solid rebound in 3Q25 sales volume (+18.1% YoY), driven by better market conditions and recovery in Vietnam’s construction segment. Easing coal prices also brought notable support to profit margins – a significant 16.6% drop compared to 3Q24.

Nonetheless, stronger infrastructure activity in the South continues to support HT1’s volume recovery. We maintain our FY25 volume growth forecast of +12% YoY, while adjusting ASP and input cost assumptions. For FY26, we expect sales volume to sustain growth momentum carried over from the Southern infrastructure projects, while ASP may remain low as market pressure persists.

At the current price, HT1 is trading at a P/E of 31.79x, P/B of 1.31x, and EV/EBITDA of 7.23x.

Based on a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple and a valuation horizon of FY2026, our revised target price is VND 18,400, and we downgrade HT1 to MARKET PERFORM following notable share price gains during 3Q25.

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

Following a trough in 2023, DGW’s earnings began recovering in 2024, with growth expected to continue through 2025 and 2026. The growth drivers include:

•           Mobile phone replacement cycle

•           Increased laptop upgrade demand fueled by AI feature adoption

•           Expansion of new brands/ product lines in the office equipment and home appliance segments.

Supporting the positive outlook, fiscal stimulus measures have been expanded to bolster consumer demand. Notably, the 2% VAT reduction—effective from July 2025 through December 2026—now includes mobile phones, laptops, and home appliances. Additionally, the removal of the 10% special consumption tax on air conditioners starting in 2026 allows these products to benefit from the VAT cut as well. The planned increase in personal and dependent allowance thresholds is also expected to further support household consumption.

We forecast net profit to reach VND 565 billion in 2025 (+26% YoY) and VND 699 billion in 2026 (+24% YoY). While DGW has previously underperformed the VN Index due to elevated valuations, the recent share price correction has brought its 2025–2026 P/E down to 14.6x and 11.8x, respectively—well below its 5-year historical average of 17x. With valuations now more compelling, we upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) and set a 12-month target price of VND 47,700 per share.

We maintain our target price of VND 29,000/share for NT2. Given a 36% upside potential, we upgrade from OUTPERFORM to BUY rating. The attractive 2025 dividend yield of over 9% can also be a supportive catalyst for the stock.

3Q25 financial highlights: earnings surged 4.8x, slightly exceeded our projection.

•           Output reached a three-year high. We primarily ascribe this to higher national electricity demand.

•           NT2 recorded a VND 24 bn provision reversal, resulting in lower-than-expected SG&A expenses.

•           Gas price declined by 4% YoY, following lower FO price.

2025-2026 outlook: We forecast machinery and equipment to fully depreciate during 4Q25 and support the quarter and 2026 earnings.

•           Our 4Q25 and 2025 NPAT growth estimates for NT2 are 3.3x YoY and 10x YoY.

•           We believe that the natural gas shortage in Southeast Vietnam may be less severe in 2026, aiding 8% YoY volume growth. Over the long-term, we remain our concerns about domestic natural gas shortages.