Company Report

Gross margin expansion for 2026: While we highlighted this trend in our previous report, SAB’s parent company (ThaiBev’s) analyst meeting last week provided more details on ingredient price trends at the group level. ThaiBev’s management indicated malt prices (estimated 23-25% of COGS) are expected to decline by an additional double-digit percentage next year, following the steep decline this year. Rice-based ingredients have also fallen over 20% YTD. Aluminum costs are likewise expected to ease. These are mostly in-line with our expectations that SAB should benefit accordingly, as SAB procures some of its ingredients at the group level.

However, we expect only a modest industry recovery in 2026 while SAB still faces fierce competition and difficulty in the General Trade channel (new tax policy applied from 2026). We maintain 2026F revenue growth at 2% YoY (in line with consensus) but increase 2026F NPAT growth from VND 4.64tn (+2 YoY) to 4.74tn (+4% YoY, higher than consensus), supported by lower input costs. At the current price of VND51,900, SAB trades at 15x 2026F P/E and offers an 8% dividend yield.

Short-term outlook: For 4Q25, we estimate revenue to decline 11% YoY (due to Sabibeco consolidation effect) but with an 11% increase in NPAT (due to low comparison base from 4Q24). We expect 1Q26 earnings growth to follow driven by absence of one-off expense in 1Q25 from the Sabibeco consolidation.

Restructuring Completion as a catalyst: We expect STB will receive final regulatory approval in 2H26, marking the formal completion of its restructuring phase and serving as a key strategic catalyst, including engagement with strategic investors, resumption of dividend distributions, and initiation of charter capital increases.

Management’s strong commitment to addressing non-performing loans is expected to extend into 2026, exerting pressure on provisioning expenses and moderating the bank’s earnings growth trajectory.

Earnings outlook remains modest: Pretax profit is expected to reach VND 14 tn (+9% YoY), supported by stronger credit growth (+14% YTD), but weighed down by NIM compression (-7bps YoY) and a sharp increase in provisions (+47.6% YoY). ROE is projected to decline to approximately 17%, while CAR is anticipated to fluctuate in the range of 9% to 9.5%.

High-growth franchise with multi-engine expansion. VPB delivered 29% credit growth YTD by the end of 3Q25, driven by aggressive lending to real estate and brokerage. We project credit growth to remain elevated in 2026 with strong momentum across the parent bank and subsidiaries.

Earnings upgrade backed by diversified income and improving asset quality. We revise 2025 PBT to VND 29.7 tn (+49% YoY) and 2026 PBT to VND 36.3 tn (+22% YoY), driven by lower credit cost (3% vs. 3.4% in 2025) and sustained fee income.

Strategic capital flexibility. As CAR declined to 13.6% (from 17% in 2023) amid rapid balance sheet expansion, we anticipate VPB will pursue capital raising options in 2026, potentially via follow-on issuance to strategic partners — a potential re-rating catalyst.

We downgrade VEA to Market Perform and reduce our 12 month target price to VND34,000/share (from VND43,300/share, adjusted for dividend). The revision reflects mounting regulatory headwinds and accelerating electrification, which are expected to weigh on Honda’s motorcycle volumes and margins despite resilient 2025 earnings. Our target price implies a P/E of 7.3x, one standard deviation below the five year average, underscoring reduced earnings visibility for 2026–27.

Investment Thesis

•           Solid near term earnings base: 9M25 NPAT rose 6% YoY, reaching 82% of our 2025 forecast. However, structural challenges—most notably the gasoline motorbike ban—warrant a more cautious medium term outlook.

•           Volume pressure: Honda’s guidance for a 200k unit cut, coupled with rapid expansion of e scooter brands (VinFast, Yadea), poses downside risk to VEAM’s historically stable associate income stream.

•           Dividend yield vs. earnings decline: While dividend yields could remain attractive (c.15% in 2026–27 if payouts are sustained), earnings are projected to contract by 14% in 2026, limiting upside potential.

We upgrade MBB to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) with a revised 12-month TP of VND 30,000, as we stay constructive on its long-term outlook supported by a robust deposit base, digital leadership, and payment edge, despite near-term asset quality headwinds from a handful of restructured exposures.

Investment thesis

•           Leading private-sector franchise with outsized growth potential. As Vietnam’s largest private bank by asset base, MBB is uniquely positioned to accelerate market share gains, particularly under the mandatory acquisition of MBV. We project credit growth of 30% in 2025 and 25% in 2026 — significantly outpacing sector averages.

•           Compelling growth-return dynamics. We forecast PBT to reach VND 32.1 tn in 2025 (+11.5% YoY) and VND 38.7 tn in 2026 (+20% YoY), supported by robust credit growth, improving fee income and writebacks. ROE is projected at 22% in 2026 — among the highest in the sector.

•           Structural advantages in a transitioning sector. MBB’s strong CASA base, leadership in digital banking and payments, and robust franchise across retail, SME & large corporate segments position the bank well to capture medium-term growth opportunities.

19% upside driven by robust presales momentum and Southern market recovery

•           Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating with 1Y target price VND 42,500/share (+19% upside).

•           NLG is currently trading at FY26 forward of 1.6x, close to its 5-year average of 1.6x.

Investment thesis

•           NLG is well-positioned to benefit from its land banks of 681 hectares and the recovery of the southern real estate market.

•           We expect NLG to sustain its presales growth momentum, reaching VND 7.8tn in 2025 (+51% YoY) and VND 8.5tn in 2026 (+9% YoY), supported by active launches and Southern market recovery.

•           NPAT-MI is expected to reach VND 705bn (+36% YoY) and VND 726bn (+3% YoY, but +36%YoY if excluding Izumi’s divestment gain in 2025) backed by robust presales in 2025 and 2026.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on POW with a 12-month target price of VND 14,500/share (implying a -5% downside). While Nhon Trach 3 officially came online in November, our view on the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 project remains cautious. Their weak first-year performance could significantly weigh on 2026 earnings, with NPATMI projected to plunge 79% YoY.

Investment thesis

•           Stable gas supply: Existing gas-fired plants should operate steadily through 2026, supported by a stable natural gas outlook.

•           Strategic importance: Despite near-term challenges, Nhon Trach 3 & 4 remains critical for Vietnam’s energy security by 2030 amid renewable expansion and difficulties in other LNG projects.

•           Coal supply advantage: Efforts to secure new coal sources could improve Vung Ang’s heat rate and input costs.

We revise up our SOTP-based 12 month TP to VND97,700 (22% upside potential), from VND87,000, on our higher 2026E net income (VND7.9tn, +19% YoY) and reiterate our BUY call. The 2026E P/E of 14.8x remains compelling vs. the past-5 year average of 17x.

Investment thesis

•           Grocery chain benefiting from the shift from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses. Aggressive expansion (1,000 new grocery stores in 2026E) of the grocery store network to secure long-term growth.

•           Mobile phone replacement/upgrade demand on top of tax relief likely to boost earnings in the ICT & CE segment.

•           Planned IPOs of Dienmayxanh and Bachhoaxanh (expected in 2026 and 2028) likely to unlock long-term value

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG, with revised target price of VND 18,500/share ~ 10% upside based on a combined P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

At the current market price, HSG is trading at FY 2026 P/E forward of 13x and P/B forward of 0.88x, which is lower than its normalized 5Y average P/E of 16x.

However, with challenging industry landscape and limited 2026F earnings growth prospects, we only recommend to buy on dip.

Investment thesis

•           HSG is the leading galvanized steel sheet and steel pipe producer in Vietnam with 22% market share.

•           Domestic galvanized steel market is positively supported in the long-term by AD on China and South Korea import as well as in the medium-term by government expansionary policy.

•           The company is expanding into construction material retail with its Hoa Sen Home chain (at 148 stores at end 2025 and 300 stores target in 2030)

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and raise our target price to VND178,000/share (13% upside potential), to reflect improving 2025E PVC costs and sustained sales volume growth. Our TP is based on an unchanged target PER of 11x now applied to our 2026E EPS (from average 2025-26E).

Investment thesis

•           Robust fundamentals: we project 2026E NPATMI to grow 9% YoY, underpinned by 11% YoY sales volume growth and stable ASP (-0.5% YoY).

•           Cost and operational advantage: PVC prices remain structurally soft due to weak Chinese manufacturing demand, with only a modest rebound expected (+1.5% YoY).

•           Attractive shareholder returns: consistent cash dividend yield averaging c.10% pa.

Industry-wise, structural consolidation has removed nearly 1.9mn tons/year of inefficient capacity in the North, while 3Q25 consumption surged 23.1% YoY on export front-loading. Imports fell 4.3% YoY, tightening supply-demand balance and supporting ASP recovery into late-2025.

Looking ahead, DHC’s disciplined procurement, lean cost base, and upcoming Giao Long 3 expansion – introducing Kraftliner and higher-value grades – position it well for structural earnings growth.

At VND 34,050 per share, DHC trades at 10.7x trailing P/E and 1.51x P/B, with a target price of VND 38,300 per share (12.6% upside). We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on respectable fundamentals and resilient profitability.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating with a 12-month target price of VND 37,000/share, implying a target P/B of 1.60x. The forward 2026F P/B of 1.25x presents a compelling entry point, particularly when combined with HDB’s ROE profile and strong medium-term earnings visibility. For context, banks under our coverage trade at an average 2026F P/B of 1.2x with an average ROE of 17%, whereas HDB is expected to deliver ROE of 24.5% in 2026, among the highest in the sector. While asset quality warrants scrutiny, we think that robust credit growth will provide a strong foundation for HDB to sustain profit growth and control its NPL ratio in 2026.

Earnings outlook: We project HDB’s pre-tax profit to reach VND 20.5 tn (+22.6% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24.5 tn (+19.6% YoY) in 2026.

Robust Q3 Performance: GVR delivered VND 9.29 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 2.18 trillion NPAT (+95% YoY), powered by higher rubber sales, improved JV contributions, and VND 131 billion in land compensation from rubber-to-industrial land conversion.

Industrial Parks Offset Rubber Headwinds: Despite a projected 5% YoY increase in rubber ASP, FY26 rubber revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY due to weather-related supply constraints. Meanwhile, industrial land leasing is set to surge 35% YoY to 95 ha, generating VND 1.3 trillion (+30% YoY), led by NTU3 and Bac Dong Phu Phase 2.

Land Conversion Unlocks Structural Growth: GVR is advancing approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, focusing on southern provinces. For 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion pre-tax profit, assuming 1,000 ha conversion in Dong Nai.

Investment View: With Vietnam’s largest rubber land bank and accelerating industrial park strategy, we value GVR at VND 35,700/share (27.5% upside) and maintain OUTPERFORM.

3Q 2025 results came in quite in line with our expectations, especially on the core items. Specifically, revenue was posted at VND 1.56 trillion +23.4% YoY and 4.5% QoQ, while core PBT (excluding rubber plantation provision expenses) was posted at VND 618 bn, up by 7% YoY. Contribution came from both strong Port segment volume growth as well as Logistics segment growth thanks to stronger charter rate of chartered vessels.

Key projects update: NDV – Phase 3 is put into operation from Oct 2025, GML Phase 1A is expected to start construction from 1Q2026, GML Phase 2B is expected to finalize legal approval in 2026. Rubber plantation divestment is expected to finalize in 1Q2026.

Reiterate OUTPEFORM, maintaining 1Y target price of VND 75,000/share (~18% upside). Key catalysts for the stock include: Positive development on Vietnam-US trade deal negotiation; Gemalink Phase 2A start construction; Rubber plantation divestment; News on bidding on new port projects (Cai Mep Ha, Nam Do Son).

In 3Q 2025, PVD posted impressive results, with consolidated revenue up by 5% YoY and NPATMI up by 53% YoY and 16% QoQ, thanks to strong performance of both Drilling segment and Well services segment. Drilling profitability has recovered near last year’s peak level, with gross profit reaching VND 360 bn, +18% YoY and +28% QoQ. Key drivers include: higher day rate, higher utilization rate, contribution of new rig PVD VIII and higher USDVND exchange rate. Well services also benefit from more demand in domestic oil&gas campaigns, with revenue reaching VND 954 bn +67% YoY, while gross profit reaching VND 236 bn +95% YoY,

Slightly revise up 2025-2026 estimates to account for contribution of new rigs (PVD VIII and PVD IX) as well as higher terminal day rate to reflect a better long-term industry outlook. Specifically, we revise up 2025F revenue to VND 9.7 trillion +4.5% YoY (from VND 8.9 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 883 bn +27% YoY (from VND 805 bn). We also revise up 2026F revenue to VND 11.5 trillion +18.4% YoY (from 10.3 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 1.2 trillion +37% YoY (from VND 1.1 trillion).

Downgrade to MARKET PERFROM (from Outperform). We revise up 1Y target price for PVD to VND 27,400/share (~3% upside) from higher earnings estimates in 2025-2026 as well as higher terminal earnings estimates, but downgrade due to recent strong share performance. PVD remains our top pick for Oil&Gas sector in 2026, and we recommend accumulating the share on dip.