Company Report

We raise our 12-month target price to VND 145,000 (implying 28% upside) and upgrade our earnings outlook, reflecting higher 2026E net income of VND 3.6tn (+26% YoY). We reiterate a BUY recommendation. At 11.6x 2026E P/E, PNJ trades at a meaningful discount to its historical average of 18x, which we view as unjustified given improving operational visibility.

Investment thesis

• Retail momentum has re-accelerated since 4Q25, marking a clear recovery from the softer performance in 9M25.
• Gold material constraints are expected to ease from 2026, supported by PNJ’s newly implemented repurchase policy.
• Market leadership strengthened by regulatory tailwinds, as PNJ stands to benefit from gold market liberalization under Decree 232/2025/ND-CP.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 115,000 (from VND 97,700), implying 29% upside, driven by a higher 2026F net income forecast of VND 9.35tn (+32% YoY). We reiterate our BUY recommendation. At 14.2x 2026E P/E, MWG continues to trade at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 17x, despite improving earnings visibility and margin structure.

Investment Case

•           Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX): structural profitability inflection. The shift from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses improves formal grocery competitiveness. Management plans to accelerate network expansion (~1,000 new stores in 2026E) to secure long-term scale benefits.

•           ICT & CE: earnings recovery underway. Replacement and upgrade demand, together with tax relief measures, should support profit normalization following aggressive cost rationalization.

•           Value unlocking optionality. Planned IPOs of Dien May Xanh (expected 1H26) and Bach Hoa Xanh (targeted for 2028) represent potential medium- to long-term re-rating catalysts.

Investment view: We maintain our constructive view for HPG in 2026 as a long-term investment, keeping it as our favorite pick for the Steel sector this year. 2026-end target price is maintained at VND 35,000/share and the stock rating remains at BUY, with potential upside of 27% from the current price. At the current market price, HPG is trading at 2026F P/E of 10.4x, which is relatively attractive for a company starting a new growth cycle.

Investment thesis

•           2026 is the first full year of operation of Dung Quat 2 steel mill, lifting HRC steel capacity to 9 millions tonnes as well as full year applying anti-dumping duty on China HRC. Thus, substantial growth of both top and bottom line (+33% YoY and 35% YoY respectively) is expected.

•           Additional investigation of anti-dumping duty on wide-width HRC should provide further protection for HPG’s key products and ensure a long-term favorable industry landscape.

While IMP remains structurally well positioned in Vietnam’s pharmaceutical sector, the recent share price rally (+12% since our OP call) has largely priced in acquisition optimism, leaving risk-reward neutral amid near-term earnings pressure. We downgrade IMP to Market Perform while raise our 12-month target price to VND 56,000/share (from VND 55,000), implying limited upside of 3%.

Investment Thesis

•           Structurally strong, tactically constrained. IMP remains a best-in-class mid-cap pharma; however, near-term growth is constrained by soft OTC demand and elevated SG&A costs.

•           Valuation not attractive. At 23x 2026F P/E, IMP trades ~1 standard deviation above its 5-year average (17x) and above regional peers (20x), limiting re-rating potential without a clearer earnings inflection.

Following a 10% increase in CTR’s share price since our previous update, we downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, while maintaining our unchanged 12-month target price of VND 102,000 per share. Upside from current levels is limited at approximately 3%. Post-2025 results, we leave our 2026 earnings forecast largely unchanged.

Investment Thesis

•           Sustainable revenue growth outlook. We expect CTR to deliver approximately 11% YoY revenue growth in 2026, supported by (i) continued expansion of base transceiver stations (BTS), (ii) increasing contribution from solar energy solutions, and (iii) sustained momentum in the construction segment.

•           “Go Global” strategy as a long-term catalyst. While near-term financial contributions may be modest, overseas expansion remains a key strategic pillar and a potential upside driver over the medium to long term.

We maintain a constructive long-term view on GVR, supported by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 394,782 hectares across key southern provinces, including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria–Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of more than 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park (IP) land represents a transformational growth catalyst with meaningful long-term value creation potential.

However, following a 49.2% rally in GVR’s share price since our previous report, upside is now more limited. Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 35,700 per share, implying a 15% downside from the current level. Accordingly, we revise our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM.

We rate OUTPERFORM with a 12-month TP of VND23,000/share, implying 22% upside. Our positive view is driven by resilient EU demand, margin recovery from product mix and automation, and valuation that remains below historical averages despite earnings momentum.

Investment thesis

•           EU growth a haven from tariff: European demand and expansion into new markets position TNG to outgrow other OEMs, while reducing US tariff exposure.

•           Margin improvement: Shift toward higher-margin products, automation, and productivity gains are lifting gross margin and lowering SG&A, supporting faster earnings growth than revenue.

•           Undemanding valuation: TNG trades at 6x 2026F P/E vs. its 5-year average of 8x, offering rerating upside as margins normalize and premium orders scale.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 and raise our target price to VND 30,000/share (from VND 29,000/share previously), reflecting a 16% increase in 2026 NPAT forecast. Supported by robust earnings in 2025–2026, we estimate an attractive 2025 dividend yield of 10%.

Investment thesis

•           We forecast 11% YoY volume growth in 2026, driven by 1) rising national demand, 2) lower gas prices and 3) sufficient natural gas supply.

•           Major machinery and equipment at the power plant reached full depreciation in 4Q25. As such, we maintain our view that depreciation & amortization expense will decline significantly in 2026, providing meaningful long‑term support to profitability.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on FRT, with 12-month target price of VND 174,000/share. At the current price, FRT is trading at 26x 2026F P/E, representing a meaningful discount to its historical average of ~40x, despite a clear improvement in earnings quality and visibility.

Investment Thesis

•           ICT & Consumer Electronics recovery: A mobile phone replacement cycle, supported by fiscal stimulus measures (personal income tax cuts and higher personal and dependent allowances), is expected to drive a cyclical rebound in the ICT & CE segment.

•           Long Châu structural growth: Long Châu is a key beneficiary of stricter enforcement against counterfeit drugs and supplements, alongside the long-term transition from traditional mom-and-pop pharmacies to modern retail pharmacy chains.

•           Vaccine retail optionality: FRT is the only listed company operating vaccine retail outlets, offering long-term growth optionality given Vietnam’s currently low vaccine coverage rate.

Market leadership and technical capabilities: PVS is Vietnam’s largest offshore oil & gas and industrial construction contractor, with proven expertise in large-scale, highly technical projects executed in challenging offshore environments. The company has also been an early mover into offshore wind construction and other alternative energy segments, including nuclear-related services.

Earnings growth peak in 2025–2026: We expect 2025–2026 to mark the peak of PVS’s earnings growth cycle over the next few years, driven by the ramp-up of major oil & gas projects such as Block B and Yellow Camel. In parallel, 2026 should bring greater regulatory clarity for offshore wind development in Vietnam, potentially unlocking longer-term project opportunities for PVS.

Strong balance sheet limits downside risk: PVS’s net cash position of VND 27,200/share, equivalent to approximately 83% of the current share price, provides meaningful downside protection for long-term investors.

Industry tailwinds are strengthening as global tanker and dry bulk traffic normalizes, with PVT’s core trade routes stabilizing following earlier disruptions.

Strategic fleet expansion at attractive acquisition costs, combined with a young average vessel age (5–10 years), enhances PVT’s long-term competitiveness versus a global fleet averaging over 15 years.

From 2026 onward, incremental capacity additions and higher fleet utilization are expected to serve as multi-year earnings catalysts, as TC rates recover from cyclical troughs.

Structural low-cost producer with resilient margins: Pig farming contributes approximately 46% of revenue and 62% of 9M25 gross profit. HPA operates at the lower end of the industry cost curve, which limits downside risk even under normalized hog price conditions and supports margin resilience across cycles.

Defensible economics driven by premium genetics and a bundled model: HPA’s integrated sow–feed bundling model functions as a quasi-franchise, enhancing customer stickiness and supporting premium pricing over the long term. We see this as a key differentiator relative to smaller or less integrated peers.

Compelling valuation despite superior fundamentals: HPA trades at a 2025F P/E of 7.6x, a substantial discount to the sector average of ~15x. While the company commands a higher-than-average P/B of 3.7x, this is justified by structurally higher margins, stronger ROE, and a conservative balance sheet with D/E of 0.3x.

Leading Position: Vinhomes remains Vietnam’s premier real estate developer, supported by an extensive land bank and a proven track record in executing large-scale projects.

Presales Growth: We expect VHM to maintain robust presales momentum, reaching VND 182 trillion in 2025 (+75% YoY) and VND 192 trillion in 2026 (+6% YoY), driven by ongoing developments and major launches scheduled for 2026.

Earnings Outlook: Net profit after tax and minority interest (NPAT-MI) is projected at VND 37 trillion (+17% YoY) in 2025 and VND 40 trillion (+8% YoY) in 2026, underpinned by strong unbilled bookings.

Earnings uplift supported by internal capital generation: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. Strong earnings growth should provide sufficient capital buffer to sustain CAR while supporting robust credit expansion.

Credit cost relief from improving asset quality: Gradual improvements in asset quality allow CTG to reduce provisions in the coming years. We expect pretax profit to reach VND 40 trillion (+26% YoY) in 2025 and VND 49.4 trillion (+23.5% YoY) in 2026.

Attractive relative valuation: For 2026, CTG trades at 1.32x P/B with ROE above 20%, offering compelling value compared with BID (1.38x P/B) and VCB (1.86x P/B), which generate ROE of 15.5%–16.5%.

Growing potential: The rebound of real estate, construction and retail market would promote 4Q25 revenue reaching about VND2,000bn (+6%YoY) resulting in 2025E total revenue of VND7tn (+20%YoY), and PBT by VND1.28tn (+44%YoY).

Low input cost utilization: Low PVC resin price (-22% YoY) and input storage stimulation (+44% YoY) pave the way for discounted-led policy for 2025 but still maintain gross profit margin and stabilize APS if input cost recovers in 2026.

Sustainable asset structure: (i) no long-term debt for three years and a net cash-to-assets ratio of 13%, (ii) largely depreciated in-use manufacturer and (iii) 2026E similar 25% cash and 20% stock dividends.