Company Report

Maintain BUY with revised 1Y TP of VND 28,200/share on lower target multiples. We raise the 2026F NPAT attributable to shareholders by 11.5% to VND 28,890 bn (+87.0% YoY) and 2027F by 2.6% to VND 28,300 bn (-2.0% YoY). Our 2026F implies 4Q26 NPAT attributable to shareholders of VND 5,308 bn (+37.4% YoY and -35.4% QoQ), on a gross profit margin of 16.0% as costlier coking coal reaches COGS. We maintain our BUY rating but lower our 12-month TP to VND 28,200/share (from VND 32,700), as we cut our target multiples to 8.0x P/E and 7.0x EV/EBITDA (from 12.0x and 9.0x). At the current price of VND 20,400/share, the TP implies +38.2% upside, and HPG remains our top pick in the steel sector.

Earnings beat, supported by a low base. VNM reported 3Q26 net revenue of VND 18.5tn (+8.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND 2.96tn (+18.0% YoY), 7% above our estimate of VND 2.76tn. Its NPAT growth is higher than listed F&B peers such as MCH (+14%) or SAB (-9.4% YoY) but lower than QNS (+18% YoY) and MCM (+34% YoY). For 9M26, revenue reached VND 53.5tn (+14.5% YoY) and NPAT VND 8.6tn (+30.6% YoY), representing 80% and 88% of the AGM targets, respectively. 3Q26 domestic revenue increased 8.8% YoY and international revenue increased 8.3% YoY, with direct exports flat at VND 1.8tn, Angkor Milk up 42.4%, and Driftwood lower due to weaker selling prices. International revenue slowed sharply in Q3 (from 39% in 1H26) due to high base effect, while domestic revenue was better QoQ (from 6.5% in Q2).

HDB reported 3Q26 consolidated PBT of VND 5.2tn (+9% YoY, -27% QoQ), well below our forecast. TOI rose nearly 20% YoY on solid NII growth (+20% YoY) and strong NFI (+41.3% YoY). These gains were largely offset by higher OPEX (+13% YoY) and a heavier provisioning burden (+47% YoY).

Beyond its solid fundamentals, we believe the upcoming listings of two subsidiaries, HD Securities and HD SAISON, will serve as positive catalysts for the bank in the near term. We hold OUTPERFORM rating for HDB shares with 1Y target price of VND 27,000/share, presenting upside of 21%.

VIC reported 3Q26 net revenue of VND 150.6tn (+28% QoQ, +285% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 22.4tn (+157% QoQ, +3392% YoY). The strong earnings performance was primarily driven by (i) solid revenue recognition from bulk-sales transactions at Global Gate Ha Long and Saigon Park, (ii) a narrower loss in the industrials segment (iii) a VND 7tn grant from the Chairman. Gross profit margin improved to 32.8% in 3Q26, compared with 25.1% in 2Q26 and -18.6% in 3Q25.

For 9M26, VIC delivered net revenue of VND 372.5tn (+120% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 38.3tn (+472% YoY), beat our FY26 earnings forecast.

We view that VIC appears to have adequate financial flexibility to meet its near-term debt obligations, supported by its ability to access both domestic and international capital markets, as well as recurring cash inflows from property sales. Securing adequate funding remains a key priority to support the capital requirements of large-scale projects and sustain development momentum amid challenging real estate market conditions.

At 10.7x trailing P/B, VIC is trading significantly above its 5-year average of 3.3x. Our estimates are under review following the 3Q26 results.

VHM reported strong 3Q26 net revenue of VND86.3tn (+62%QoQ, +426%YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND23.1tn (+2%QoQ, +453%YoY), exceeding our estimates. Strong earnings were primarily driven by bulk-sales recognition at Global Gate Ha Long, Saigon Park and Ocean Park 2 & 3. Gross margin improved to 59.6% in 3Q26 from 15.0% in 3Q25, driven by high-margin bulk sales transactions, though remaining below the 66.9% recorded in 2Q26.

VHM posted adjusted revenue (including revenue from bulk sales transactions and BCCs) of VND 232.6tn (+234%YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 71.4tn (+396%YoY), exceeding our FY26 earnings forecast by 19%, indicating clear upside to our estimates.

We currently rate Market Perform on Vinhomes (VHM) with a target price of VND 78,800/share (25% upside). VHM is currently trading at a 2027F P/B of 1.5xt, below its five-year average forward P/B of 1.7x. Following the recent price correction and higher- than-expected 9M earnings, we are reviewing our forecasts and ratings.

STB reported a disappointing 3Q26, with pretax profit of approximately VND 1.8tn (-52% YoY, -13% QoQ), falling short of our expectations. Strong non-interest income, led by a 532% YoY surge in net fee income and a 267% YoY increase in FX trading gains, together with a 31% YoY reduction in OPEX, was insufficient to offset a 37% YoY contraction in NII and a 449% YoY jump in provisioning expenses.

STB currently trades at a trailing P/B of 1.98x, a significant premium to the peer average of 1.32x. In our view, this valuation is not supported by the bank’s underlying performance. We therefore place our rating and target price “Under Review” and will reassess our position in future reports should the bank demonstrate a more positive improvement in its fundamentals.

3Q26 revenue reached VND 52.6tn (+32% YoY), while NPAT rose 97% YoY to VND 3.5tn. NPATMI increased 75% YoY to VND 3.1tn, with slower growth reflecting dilution following DMX’s IPO in late 2Q26, which reduced MWG’s ownership from 98.9% to 86%. The IPO raised VND 13.3tn, strengthening MWG’s cash position and boosting interest income. Net financial income surged 75% YoY to VND 697bn in 3Q26, supported by a larger cash balance and higher interest rates. Despite a +5% QoQ increase in NPAT, NPATMI declined by -6% QoQ due to the lower ownership stake in DMX. This suggests that NPATMI may have peaked in 2Q26 in the near term, although quarterly earnings could reach a new record high in 2027 as MWG’s grocery business continues to grow.

Investment view: MWG’s 3Q26 NPAT of VND 3.5tn exceeded our estimate of VND 3.0tn, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected margins in the ICT & CE business. We maintain our BUY rating on MWG, with a 12-month target price of VND 102,000 per share, although we may revise our 2026–2027 earnings forecasts following the analyst meeting on November 6.

MSN’s robust 9M26 earnings growth was largely driven by MSR’s exceptionally high profits, while its core businesses delivered more moderate growth. With tungsten prices showing signs of correction, consolidated earnings growth is expected to decelerate significantly in 2027, although core earnings should remain resilient at a mid-teens growth rate. Strong earnings and proceeds from planned MSR stake sales (as discussed below) should help MSN meet its obligations to The CrownX investors and reduce leverage, allowing the group to refocus on its core businesses over the longer term.

Corporate restructuring underway: MSN has undertaken several corporate restructuring initiatives since early October, including the sale of a 5% stake in non-core subsidiary MSR and the acquisition of an additional 5.6% stake in core subsidiary MCH. The remaining key corporate restructuring activities include:

•           Further MSR stake sales: MSN plans to sell an additional 5% stake in MSR in 4Q26–1Q27 to meet free-float requirement for HOSE listing, followed by further divestments to reduce its ownership to 75% in 2027.

•           The CrownX share buyback: The buyback is expected to take place in 2027, although the timeline could be extended depending on the outcome of negotiations.

Catalogue sales price increases support margins. BMP has raised its selling prices for PVC products by an average of 20% YTD (with retail channels increasing ~5-8% in Q3) in response to higher input costs. As supply chains stabilize over 2027, we expect resin input costs to decline from the 9M26 average of USD 835/ton to the USD 725-775/ton range, supporting positive mid-term dynamics for BMP’s GPM, similar to the post-COVID period.

Volume stability from large scale projects. Pivot to large scale projects enable BMP to support sales volumes, benefit from economies of scale, lower sales expenses and support margins.

Consistent, high dividends. BMP maintains a stable dividend policy, with a payout ratio of 99%, translating to an average dividend yield (effectively, an earnings yield) of over 10%.a

Management expects modest API price increases, with no material COGS impact until after 1H27. The medium-term growth strategy centres on ETC expansion, higher-value products facing less competition, and a broader product mix. Antibiotics’ revenue contribution has declined from 76% to 72%, while future launches will increasingly target non-antibiotic products, including OTC medicines. Imported products are expected to enter the portfolio from late 2027.

IMP5, with estimated capex of approximately VND500bn, is now scheduled to break ground in 2027, with revenue contributions expected around 2030. These initiatives support longer-term growth potential but offer limited relief to near-term visibility.

Following the recent share price appreciation, we lower our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY) for NT2 and maintain a 12-month target price of VND 27,000/share (representing 11% upside). The target price reiteration reflects insignificant revisions in our 2026-2027 earnings projections. Particularly, we forecast 7% YoY NPAT growth for 2027.

Investment thesis

•           NT2 is among a few power plants that still have long-term gas supply agreements with PV GAS (GAS: HOSE).

•           Machinery and equipment related to the power plant were fully depreciated during 4Q25, leading to a structurally lower cost base from 2026 onward

Outlook and valuation.  Monthly revenue growth slowed from +29.2% YoY in July to +13.9% YoY in September. With a high 4Q25 base and some orders already shipped early, 4Q26 growth may stay positive but slow further. The AGM targets implies TNG only need VND 88bn (-22% YoY) in NPAT for 4Q26, which shouldn’t be hard to achieve.At VND 18,900, the stock trades at 6x trailing P/E (post welfare fund appropriation) against a five-year average of 9x. Our assumed FY26 dividend of VND 2,000/share (VND 1,000 already paid) implies a 10.5% yield. We are placing our rating and target price under review.