Company Report

Techcombank (TCB) reported 3Q26 profit before tax of roughly VND 10.4 tn (+25.8% YoY, +7.3% QoQ), ahead of our VND 9.5 tn forecast. The beat came mainly from solid net interest income (+18% YoY) and strong fee income (+60% YoY). This more than made up for weaker other non-interest income in the quarter: trading gains from securities and FX fell 34% YoY, and writeback income dropped 73.6% YoY. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on TCB with a 12-month target price of VND 40,400 per share, underpinned by forecast PBT growth of 16.1% in 2026 and 15.2% in 2027. We will provide our updated earnings forecasts and target price in our forthcoming full report.

We have maintained our rating suspension (UNDER REVIEW) on PNJ since July amid significant uncertainties surrounding its liquidity position, potential dilution from the proposed private placement, and possible changes in its ownership structure. While the capital raise could ease near-term liquidity pressures, key uncertainties remain regarding corporate governance, brand trust restoration, and the pace of post-crisis earnings recovery.

Preliminary 9M26 results: Earnings exceed full-year guidance

PHR reported strong 9M26 results, with revenue surging 137% YoY to VND 2,336.6 billion, equivalent to 102.5% of its FY26 target. Net profit attributable to the parent (NPAT-MI) rose 145% YoY to VND 882.4 billion, achieving 113.2% of full-year guidance. In the natural rubber segment, sales volume reached 21,468 tonnes, while average selling prices increased 12% YoY to VND 56.9 million/tonne.

However, 3Q26 NPAT-MI came in at VND 409 billion (+26.6% YoY), representing 71.1% of our forecast. The shortfall primarily reflected the delayed recognition of compensation income related to rubber tree clearance for the THACO Mechanical & Specialized Industrial Park and VSIP III projects, which we had expected to be recognized in the quarter.

We currently estimate FY2026F net sales of VND9,341bn (+26.8% YoY), followed by more moderate growth of 5.6% in 2027F as volume growth normalizes and ASPs ease. Our current estimates are summarized below; we will provide a further update following the release of HT1's 3Q26 financial statements.

3Q26 pretax profit reached VND 11 tn (+20.3% YoY), beating our projection of VND 10 tn. TOI grew decently by 10% YoY, driven by NII (+21% YoY), NFI (+29% YoY) and other income (+34% YoY). However, the bank booked losses from securities trading and FX in 3Q26.

We maintain OUTPERFORM with a 1-year target price of VND 26,500 - set at 1.2x target P/B on mid-2027 book value plus the value of the pending private placement if it completes.

9M26 preliminary results

Revenue and NPATMI are estimated at VND 164.5 tn (+58% YoY) and VND 22.9 tn (+11x YoY), respectively, implying 3Q26 NPATMI of ~VND 7 tn (+8x YoY, -9% QoQ). The strong earnings performance was primarily driven by higher volume, wider crack spreads and rising crude oil prices. We note that actual earnings remain sensitive ti the refinery product and crude oil price levels prevailing at the reporting date.

Key highlights from 9M26 performance

•           Sales volume reached 6.1 mn tonnes (+5% YoY). BSR’s 6th turnaround maintenance is scheduled for 2027, which we expect could weigh on volume. However, BSR plans to shorten the maintenance period to 32 days, compared with 50-60 days for previous turnarounds (2011-2024) to help ensure the national petroleum security.

•           Average Brent crude oil price achieved USD 89/bbl (+27% YoY). At end-September 2026, Brent crude oil price stood at USD 104/bbl (+70% YTD).

•           The estimated crack spread for 2026 is ~USD 32/bbl (vs. USD 9.5/bbl in 2025), which is targeted to normalize to USD 18-27/ bbl in 2027.

As of end-3Q26, KBC’s unbilled backlog stood at around 110ha. Management expects to hand over an additional 50-80ha in 4Q26, bringing FY26 land handovers to 126-156ha. While this range is broadly in line with our 142ha forecast, it would represent only 50-62% of KBC’s full-year target of 250ha, reflecting weaker-than-expected IP sales during the year.

Following the 3Q26 results, we see potential downside risks to our forecasts and rating, given lower-than-expected IP land sales and higher-than-expected financial expenses. We will provide a detailed update in our upcoming report.

Vingroup held its Investor Conference from October 2 to 4, 2026. Management's updates were broadly in line with disclosures made during the previous earnings calls. Key highlights included site visits to two of Vinhomes' flagship mega-projects, Global Sportia, which features the VinFast - Trong Dong Stadium, and Global Gate Ha Long. The conference also provided greater insight into the growth strategies, expansion plans, and long-term outlook of GSM and VinEnergo. Key takeaways are as follows:

•           FY26 earnings target: Management remains on track to achieve its FY26 NPAT target of VND35tn. Based on this guidance, 2H26 NPAT would need to reach VND14.1tn, representing 115% YoY growth.

•           Capital structure and funding: Vingroup targets Net Debt/EBITDA of around 3.0x or below (vs. 2.1x as of 2Q26 following the deconsolidation of VinFast Vietnam manufacturing facilities). VIC continues to diversify funding sources across domestic and international markets, with further diversification in international capital markets.

Sector-leading, record profitability which is recognised up front. We project consolidated PBT to VND 38.8tn in 2026F (+27% YoY) and VND 45.0tn in 2027F (+20% YoY). With the sector's fastest balance-sheet growth, the debate is not whether VPB can grow, but the quality of that growth.

A diversifying, capital-markets-led group. VPX has scaled up alongside OPES and FE Credit, with new investments in CAEX and VPCapital extending the group along the capital-markets value chain.

Solid capital, with sizeable ongoing funding needs to match fast-growth ambitions. Despite one of the sector's higher capital ratios, fast RWA growth keeps capital needs sizeable; the pending private placement fits here and, if completed, would lift book value and fund the next leg of expansion.

Dominant position in Vietnam’s most attractive port clusters: GMD owns flagship assets in Cai Mep–Thi Vai (Gemalink) and Hai Phong (Nam Dinh Vu), the two fastest growing port regions in Vietnam. As Gemalink is one of the very few ports in Cai Mep with spare capacity to accommodate the region’s ~15% annual throughput growth, GMD is structurally well positioned to capture multi year volume and pricing upside.

Tariff tailwinds strengthen earnings visibility: Deep sea port floor tariffs were recently raised by 8–10%, and we expect Gemalink’s ASP to rise by ~10% YoY, supported by tight regional capacity and GML’s superior location. These industry-wide tariff adjustments provide a more favorable and predictable long term margin environment.

Long growth runway from capacity expansion: Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 commenced operations, lifting NDV’s total capacity to 2 mn TEU/year, while Gemalink Phase 2A (800K TEU)b broke ground in 1H2026 and be completed in 2H2027. With no competing capacity additions expected in the Cai Mep region until after 2030, GMD should benefit from a supply constrained environment for at least the next five years.

Price revisions support margin resilience: HT1 has raised selling prices by ~9% on average, broadly offsetting higher input costs (mainly coal) without denting volume growth (1H26 sales volume +9.7% YoY). The ability to raise prices while volumes recover suggests that current demand conditions are becoming more supportive of cost pass-through.

Southern positioning supports infrastructure-led volume recovery: Long Thanh International Airport, the APEC cluster, Ring Roads 3 and 4, and the Southern North-South Expressway network should continue to support cement demand in HT1’s core markets. Newer projects, including the metro system and Can Gio infrastructure cluster, could provide additional medium-term demand support as construction progresses.

Higher utilization should support operating leverage: HT1’s established Southern distribution network and scale position it to capture incremental demand as the recovery broadens. Higher volumes should improve fixed-cost absorption, allowing earnings growth to increasingly come from a combination of volume recovery, pricing discipline, and operating leverage.

Expanding its existing land bank, IDC has been approved to invest in three new industrial parks totaling 806 hectares (Tan Phuoc 1 IP, My Xuan B Expansion IP and Vinh Quang IP), equivalent to 60% of IDC's current business land bank, with operations expected to commence in late 2026. We believe IDC’s diversified IP portfolio, anchored in key Northern and Southern hubs, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth.

New lease area and MOUs are expected to rebound in 2026. New lease area and MOUs in 2026 are projected to reach 83 hectares (+10% YoY), of which 35 hectares will come from contracts carried over from 2025. We believe that stronger industrial park leasing demand in 2026 will be driven primarily by Phu My II Expansion and Huu Thanh, with initial contributions from Tan Phuoc 1 in 4Q26.

High dividend yield. IDC maintains a 40% dividend payout, comprising an estimated 30% cash dividend and 10% stock dividend. Based on the cash dividend, the implied dividend yield is 9.9%.

Market leadership in ICT and consumer electronics retail. DMX’s leading market position, bargaining power, established customer base, and extensive store network provide a platform for expanding into higher-margin adjacent services, including utility payments, agency banking, technical services, and e-commerce.

Long-term growth opportunity from EraBlue in Indonesia. EraBlue continues to expand rapidly in a market where modern-trade penetration remains below 10%, providing substantial room for store network expansion. That said, the chain remains at an early stage and currently makes only a negligible contribution to group earnings.

Strong balance sheet provides financial resilience. DMX’s cash-rich balance sheet provides a degree of downside protection against higher interest rates while supporting sustainable dividend payments.

We maintain our Market Perform rating on Vinhomes, with a 12-month target price of VND78,800/share, implying 11% upside. We raise our FY26 NPAT-MI forecast by 10% to VND61.6tn, mainly reflecting stronger-than-expected bulk-sale recognition across key projects. We forecast FY26 presales to increase 39% YoY to VND284.6tn, supported by an expanding project launch pipeline and continued bulk transactions.

The stronger earnings outlook, however, comes with higher capital intensity. We expect operating cash flow to turn negative in FY26 as inventory build-up and development expenditure accelerate, with debt/equity rising to 0.80x. Potential participation in infrastructure development could provide additional EPC income while improving connectivity to selected projects, but the financial implications remain difficult to assess given limited disclosure on contract status, returns, and funding requirements. We therefore exclude potential infrastructure contributions from our forecasts and valuation.

At 2.2x FY26F P/B, versus a five-year historical average of 1.7x, we believe VHM’s current valuation already incorporates much of the stronger FY26 earnings outlook.

Strong growth supported by superior profitability. MBB reported 2Q26 PBT of VND10.6 trillion, up 41% YoY, while 1H26 PBT reached VND20.2 trillion, equivalent to 49% of our full-year forecast. We project PBT to reach VND41.1 trillion in 2026 (+20% YoY) and VND47.4 trillion in 2027 (+15% YoY), supported by credit growth of around 27% and a sector-leading ROE of 21-22%.

Margin recovery demonstrates earnings resilience. NIM recovered to 4.16% in 2Q26, up 35bps QoQ, driven primarily by a significant increase in lending yields as the bank expanded higher-yield medium and long-term lending, particularly in real estate. The ability to reprice assets faster than funding costs highlights MBB's earnings resilience, although sustaining this performance will increasingly depend on funding management.

Long-term value lies in monetising a 38-million-customer ecosystem. Beyond near-term earnings growth, we believe the bank's most important strategic asset is its rapidly expanding customer base. While MBB has successfully built scale through its digital ecosystem, the larger opportunity remains converting these customers into higher-value relationships through consumer finance, unsecured lending and cross-selling. Successful execution could provide a structurally higher-margin growth engine over the long term.