Company Report

• Accelerated Property Development: Strong pre-sales momentum continues, fueled by multiple ongoing projects and anticipated launches in 2H25
•  Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion: EV sales are projected to reach 180,000 units in 2025 (+85% YoY) and 220,000 units in 2026 (+22% YoY), reflecting robust growth.
• Earning Outlook: FY25 NPAT-MI is expected to hit 12.8 trillion (+7.3%YoY).

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.

Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating: We maintain OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y target price of VND 36,800 – presenting an upside of 26.9%. HDB trades at 1.67x trailing P/B (1.33x forward), above its 5Y average of 1.5x.

Solid core income growth during 2Q25, including net interest income (+27.2% YoY), net fee income (+493% YoY), Fx trading gains (+37% YoY), and profitable securities trading income of VND 261 bn, which was largely offset by provisioning pressure (+268% YoY).

Solid pretax profit growth: PBT is projected to reach VND 20 tn (+19.9% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24 tn (+19.7% YoY) in 2026. ROE is retained at high level of over 20% in medium-term.

Both the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index and the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index have announced the results of their quarterly index review for 3Q25. The changes will be implemented on Friday, September 19, 2025, and will take effect from Monday, September 22, 2025.

The Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has not yet confirmed the effective date of its new benchmark. The transition will occur within the window between July 17, 2025, and October 16, 2025

2Q25 Deliveries Track Full-Year Guidance

VinFast delivered 35,800 EVs in 2Q25 (flat QoQ, +172% YoY), bringing 1H25 volumes to 72,000 units (+223% YoY). By comparison, VAMA members reported a 21% YoY increase in the same period. The sales mix remained weighted toward affordable models, with VF3 and VF5 representing 61% of volumes and VF6 contributing 12%. ASP held steady at ~USD 16,000, supported by reduced related-party sales to GSM (22% in 2Q25 vs. 28% in 2024). E-scooter volumes surged to 69,600 units (+432% YoY), reaching 114,000 in 1H25, though management reiterated the segment is non-core given lower ASPs and profitability. Full-year EV delivery guidance of 200,000 units (+100% YoY) was reaffirmed, with VF3–6 and the Green Series (for taxi services) identified as key drivers. Management highlighted potential upside from expansion in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Margins Under Pressure Despite Volume Growth

1H25 revenue reached USD 1.3bn (+92% YoY), but net loss widened to USD 1.5bn, reflecting elevated COGS (USD 1.8bn), OpEx (USD 0.4bn), and financing costs (USD 0.4bn). Q2 gross margin deteriorated to –41% (vs. –35% in Q1), weighed by a USD 400mn warranty provision for earlier models and revenue recognition delays. On an adjusted basis (excluding free charging programs, NRV adjustments, and other items), gross margin stood at –21%, slightly weaker than Q1.

2Q25 results: MSN reported solid 2Q25 earnings with NPATMI of VND 1.03 tn (+105% YoY) on lower financial expenses and higher selling prices for mining products.

Consumer tailwinds ahead: The WCM retail chain is well-positioned to benefit from the shift from traditional to modern trade, which will be catalyzed by the upcoming tax reform in 2026. Meanwhile, distribution disruptions at MCH are expected to normalize in 2H25 following a one-off destocking event in 2Q25.

Valuation: We raise our 1Y target price to VND 98,700, rolling valuation basis to 2026F (from 2025F) and reducing the conglomerate discount to 20% (from 25%). We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We maintain a constructive outlook on DBD, supported by its scalable, affordable product portfolio versus imported drugs and robust growth in the ETC market. In the medium to long term, new production facilities should secure future capacity, broaden the portfolio, and deliver material tax benefits (four years tax-free, followed by a 50% reduction for nine years). Notably, DBD remains among the few credible Vietnamese pharma players without a foreign strategic partner, an area management has expressed strong interest in pursuing.

We leave FY25–26 earnings forecasts unchanged (2025 NPAT: VND331bn, +16% YoY; 2026 NPAT: VND348bn, +9% YoY). Rolling valuations forward to 2026, we raise our target price to VND62,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 12x target EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. regional peer M&A multiples of 13x). With 16.3% implied upside, we upgrade DBD to Outperform.

The upcoming rebalancing cycle for offshore Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) with Vietnam exposure is scheduled for this month. The VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF, which tracks the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index, is expected to implement its quarterly rebalancing changes on September 19.

Separately, the Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has announced a benchmark transition, shifting from the FTSE Vietnam Index to the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index. In line with this change, the fund will be renamed the Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF.

The effective date of the new benchmark will fall within the transition window starting July 17, 2025, and no later than October 16, 2025. During this transition period, the index switch is considered pending, and a formal notification will be issued once the process is finalized.

The launch of The Gladia project is expected to be a key growth catalyst for Khang Dien in 2025–26, underpinning both sales value and earnings momentum. However, following the recent share price rally, much of this growth outlook has already been priced in. We therefore downgrade our rating from BUY to Market Perform, with a revised target price of VND 36,500 per share.

FY25–26 Outlook

Sales value is projected to reach VND 5,609bn (+9% YoY) in FY25 and VND 6,844bn (+22% YoY) in FY26, primarily supported by The Gladia.

Revenue is forecast at VND 5,442bn (+66% YoY) in FY25 and VND 5,982bn (+10% YoY) in FY26.

Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPAT-MI) is expected at VND 873bn (+8% YoY) in FY25 and VND 937bn (+7% YoY) in FY26, driven by contributions from The Privia and The Gladia.

Short-Term Outlook

Presales should improve in 2H25 following a stagnant 2024 and 1H25, with The Gladia launch scheduled for September. We expect earnings to grow 18% YoY in 2H25, supported by initial handovers at the project.

Long-Term Outlook

We maintain a constructive long-term view on Khang Dien, supported by its strong reputation as a developer, sizeable land bank in Ho Chi Minh City, proven project execution capabilities, and clear legal framework for its projects.

Following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2Q25, we have revised our 2025 net income forecast upward to VND 5.83 tn (+56% YoY, from VND 5.56 tn).

Looking ahead, we introduce our 2026 net income projection at VND 6.88 tn, marking an 18% YoY growth. This forecast is underpinned by:

• Moderate earnings growth in the ICT & Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, supported by the ongoing mobile phone replacement cycle and improved demand on 2% VAT deduction (from July 2025)
• Strong earnings momentum from the grocery segment on aggressive store network expansion and ongoing improved profitability of existing stores

We anticipate the grocery chain will play a pivotal role in driving MWG’s expansion, while ICT & CE will deliver steady but limited growth due to currently high penetration of modern trade (~80%).

MWG’s share price has increased by 21% over the past 4 months. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2026F (previously based on 2025F), resulting in a new SOTP-based target price of VND 87,000 per share (from VND 74,000). As such, we continue to reiterate our BUY recommendation, supported by a compelling 18.2% upside potential from the current market price.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 69,400/share (from VND 71,300/share), implying a 8% upside. The adjustment reflects an 11% downward revision to our 2025 NPATMI forecast, following weaker-than-expected 1H25 results.

1H25 performance: Strong hydropower, weak real estate and M&E

Earnings slightly missed our projections, as:

•           House sales at Light Square project showed little progress

•           Multiple M&E contracts delayed revenue recognition, as they remain under construction

•           Office leasing segment incurred higher-than-expected maintenance costs.

Hydropower recovery was the main driver of 48% YoY NPATMI growth, supported by favorable weather condition YoY, as 1H24 earnings was depressed by El Niño weather pattern.

2025 outlook: Softer 2H earnings ahead

•           We forecast NPATMI of VND 2.4 tn (+18% YoY).

•           This implies flat to slightly negative YoY growth in 2H25, as hydropower plants typically conserve water in the fourth quarter to ensure sufficient water availability for power generation in the following year.

2026 outlook:

•           We project revenue of VND 11.0 tn (+15% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+23% YoY),

•           Key drivers:

• Stronger M&E services revenue contribution
• Further revenue recognition from Light Square project
• Rising occupancy at E.town 6 office building
• Ongoing favorable hydrological conditions

Earnings update: BMP delivered solid 2Q25 results with revenue of VND1,308bn (+13.4% YoY) and NPAT of VND330bn (+17.7% YoY). Margins held firm, with GPM at 46.7% and OPM at 31.5%, reflecting stable input costs and pricing discipline. Revenue softened slightly from 1Q25, but profitability improved. Cumulatively, 1H25 revenue reached VND2,691bn (+24.8% YoY) with NPAT of VND617bn (+31.2% YoY).

Operations update: Management remains focused on efficiency rather than expansion, with product-mix adjustments and selective investments aimed at sustaining cash flow. The new CEO is gradually pushing for product innovation and distribution upgrades, though these will likely take time to filter into earnings.

Industry and market outlook: PVC resin prices have inched up since May 2025 but are expected to remain stable through 3Q25, while volatility from crude oil and tariffs bears watching. Chinese demand has shown modest improvement but is unlikely to lift global prices materially. In Vietnam, real estate activity is beginning to stabilize, with early signs of project restarts and supportive housing policy, which should benefit medium-term construction demand.

Investment thesis and forecast: We forecast 2025E net revenue at VND5,490bn (+19.0% YoY) and NPAT at VND1,181bn (+19.2% YoY), implying a net margin of 21.5%. For2026E, we expect net revenue of VND5,650bn (+2.9% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,144bn (-3.2% YoY), with net margins normalizing slightly at 20.2%. The company remains positioned to defend profitability while sustaining healthy dividends.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM on Gemadept with a revised target price of VND 75,000/share (from VND 58,800/share). The upgrade reflects stronger 2025F–2026F earnings forecasts and reduced tariff risks, supporting a re-rating case. Near-term catalysts include: (i) potential tariff hikes at deep-sea ports, (ii) favorable U.S. treatment of transshipment cargo, (iii) rubber plantation divestment progress, and (iv) project milestones such as Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3’s earlier launch and legal clearance for Gemalink Phase 2A.

2Q25 Results: Gemadept delivered strong results, with revenue up 30% YoY/17% QoQ and pretax profit rising ~YoY/16% QoQ to VND 677bn, broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was supported by exporters frontloading shipments to the U.S. ahead of Liberation Day tariff implementation.

Key Discussion Highlights

•           Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 (NDV3): Construction has been accelerated, with operations now targeted for Oct 2025 (vs. Jan 2026 initially).

•           Rubber Plantation Divestment: Negotiations with potential buyers are ongoing, with the deal expected to be finalized soon.

•           Deep-Sea Port Tariff Hike: A tariff increase of around 10% could be implemented as early as 3Q25, with Gemalink among the key beneficiaries.

•           5-Year Strategic Plan: Management is preparing a roadmap for 2026–2030, targeting earnings CAGR at least in line with the 2021–2025 period. The plan will be presented for shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.

VNM delivered a mixed set of 2Q25 results. Revenue recovered 29% QoQ (flat YoY), thanks to a rebound in domestic sales after restructuring, while international business stayed subdued against a high base. Management highlighted that distribution channels are now fully restored and operating more efficiently than before.

Gross margin improved QoQ to 42% but remained slightly below last year, reflecting the impact of elevated material prices (despite the 2.5% ASP hike). Net profit fell 7.7% YoY, missing our forecast by 6%, with net margin slipping to 15%. At the half-year mark, only 46% of revenue and 42% of profit targets have been achieved, underscoring the need for strong 2H execution to meet guidance.

We are near-term cautious due to the weak 1H25 performance, margin compression, and a still-fragile GT channel (tax reforms impacting small household businesses). From 2026, we expect stronger growth driven by new category ramp-up and a recovery in consumer confidence, underpinned by higher GDP growth. We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast of VND 9.3tn (-2% YoY) but revise our 2026 earnings forecast upward to VND 9.5tn (+2.4% YoY). We downgrade our rating to MARKET PERFORM (from Outperform), given only 7% potential upside to our TP of VND 65,000/share.