Company Report

We upgrade HDB to BUY with a 12-month target price of VND 35,000, implying 32.1% upside, supported by continued earnings growth and sustained above-system credit expansion.

The growth profile is clear, but the investment case hinges on execution. HDB continues to deliver strong headline metrics: high credit growth, robust ROE, and an expanding ecosystem. The more relevant question at this stage is not whether growth persists, but whether the balance sheet can scale efficiently without eroding returns.

HDB retains a structural advantage in credit allocation, with capacity to grow loans at ~35% over 2025–2027 — materially above the system, supported in part by its role in restructuring weaker institutions. This creates a window to accumulate market share faster than peers, reinforcing earnings momentum. At the same time, it places greater emphasis on funding discipline and risk management as the credit cycle matures.

Importantly, the composition of growth is improving. Credit expansion is increasingly diversified across manufacturing, services, retail trade, SMEs, and household businesses, reducing concentration risk. Rather than relying on a single lending segment, HDB is building a broader, more resilient franchise aligned with Vietnam’s consumption growth and formalization trends.

At the current market price, PVD is trading at 2026F-2027F P/E forward of 14.2x and 12.2x respectively, while its forward P/B are 1.1x and 1.0x in the same period. Our revised DCF valuation points to new target price of VND 34,000/share (from VND 27,400/share) reflecting a longer industry cycle assumption and more aggressive investment stance from the management. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for the share due to limited upside at the current price, and recommend to buy on dip.

Favorable industry outlook with prospect for a longer upcycle from more persistent demand for upstream development after higher supply uncertainty in the Middle East

Strong earnings growth in 2026 of 38% YoY thanks to contribution of 2 new jack-up rigs, stable day rate and utilization rate, PVD VI full year contribution and PVD I fully depreciated.

The management is taking a more aggressive stance in rig investment, with plan to invest 3 more rigs in the next 5 years.

GVR is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17x, below its 3-year historical average of 21.7x. We maintain a constructive stance on GVR, underpinned by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 377,797 hectares across key provinces including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of over 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park land represents a transformative growth driver, offering substantial long-term upside. Applying a SOTP valuation framework, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 36,200/share (1% down side) and reiterate our Market Perform rating.

Rubber prices remain elevated, underpinning 2026 earnings. In May 2026, prices rose 32% YoY and 28% YTD on weather-driven supply constraints, with Thailand facing heavy rainfall risks. Higher oil prices also lent support amid ongoing Middle East tensions. We project average rubber prices to rise 15% YoY to VND 58 million/ton. Rubber revenue is estimated at VND 26.7 trillion (+12% YoY), with consumption volume expected to reach 513,870 tons (-4% YoY) in 2026. Gross margin expected to reach 28%, up 2ppt YoY.

We expect income from the conversion of rubber plantation land into industrial park land. GVR is progressing legal and investment approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern provinces. In 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion in pre-tax profit, assuming 1,500 ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old).

Financial health remains solid. In 1Q26, GVR reported net cash of VND 25.8 trillion, equivalent to 17.3% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position will support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation with a lower target price of VND 61,600/share than our previous report reflecting lower anticipated PBT in 2026 due to sudden resin price recovery. Our target price is derived from a 5-year sector average P/E of 13.1x, and  P/B ratio of 1.9x. NTP could be a defensive choice for stock investment based on fundamental strength and construction sector momentum.

Stable construction sector trajectory and backlogs boost revenue increment. We expect consolidated revenue could accelerate by +12.5%YoY to around VND 7.8tn, fuled from increasing ASP and the carry-over backlog. Total consumption could extend to nearly 148 thousand tons of pipe, rising by +10%YoY.

Capacity to increase the ASP corresponded to resin price recovery. This could preserve the revenue growth and mitigate the unpredictable input risk affecting net margin due to 100% import dependence.

Asset structures minimizes interest risk exposure. Maintaining large amounts of cash and short-term investment helps company less likely to expose high interest rates borrowing, and even benefited from favorable deposit rate generating net financial income to support the PBT of company. We estimate a 100bps increase in interest rate would translate into an additional VND 27 bn in financial income (~3% of 2026 PBT).    

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating for PLX, with a 12-month target price of VND 43,200/share (previously VND 41,300/share), representing 7% upside. Despite lowering our 2026 NPATMI assumption, we roll our valuation horizon forward to 2027 and incorporate a DCF approach alongside our P/E-based valuation.

Investment thesis: PLX as the leading petroleum player in Vietnam: Along with Dung Quat (BSR: HOSE) and Nghi Son (NSRP) refineries, PLX plays a key role in ensuring adequate petroleum supply, underpinned by its extensive storage infrastructure, broad partner network and large petrol station footprint.

1Q26 results: PLX recorded revenue growth (+45% YoY) but a negative NPATMI of -VND 763 bn (vs. a positive level of VND 133 bn in 1Q25).

Petroleum segment loss was the main driver, due to a significant inventory provision of over VND 6.3 tn, reflecting 1) elevated global petroleum price volatility in March and April 2026 and 2) PLX’s critical role in additional petroleum sourcing in March, amid sourcing difficulties from several other primary wholesalers.

Other segments remained stable operations, as respective overall PBT grew by 2% YoY.

We expect Vingroup to deliver strong earnings growth in FY26, supported primarily by robust property sales momentum at Vinhomes. Vinhomes’s FY26 presales value is forecasted to increase 28% YoY to VND 262.2tn, driven by ongoing projects and three new launches. Bulk sales transactions are expected to remain the primary contributor to total presales value.

VinFast is expected to maintain strong volume growth, with automobile sales projected at 270k units in 2026 (+37% YoY) and e-scooter sales reaching 750k units (+85% YoY). VinFast’s global EV expansion is likely to remain loss-making in the near term, acting as a key earnings headwind; however, if the proposed restructuring plan is approved, it could help improve VinFast’s earnings contribution through a more asset-light structure and reduced cost burden.

We forecast FY26 revenue of VND 455.9tn (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 30.8tn (+171% YoY). FY26 earnings are expected to be driven mainly by (i) property sales recognition from Green Paradise, Ocean Park 2&3, Royal Island, Wonder City, and other projects; and (ii) VND 22tn of financial support from the Chairman. Excluding the Chairman’s support, FY26 NPAT is estimated at VND 13.9tn, compared with a loss of VND 7.3tn in FY25.

In our view, Vingroup’s earnings profile remains fundamentally anchored by its real estate business, supported by continued project launches and ongoing sales activity. Earnings visibility continues to depend largely on property sales performance — particularly bulk sales transactions — as well as potential asset divestments, one-off financial income, and recurring financial support from the Chairman.

We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on VIC. Beyond expectations surrounding Vietnam’s potential market upgrade, VIC has also emerged as a key beneficiary of the market’s renewed preference for large private-sector conglomerates (conglomerate premium in short), supported by increasingly favorable policy rhetoric toward the domestic private sector. The stock’s market capitalization has risen to approximately 28% of total HSX market capitalization, creating a significant technical rebalancing requirement across both institutional and retail portfolios. As many investors remain materially underweight relative to VIC’s benchmark representation, the need to increase allocations (from zero-weight) could continue to provide meaningful technical support and sustain incremental demand for the shares in the near term.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on ACB with a 12-month target price of VND 27,500/share, implying upside potential of 20.9%, alongside a projected dividend yield of approximately 3%. Our target valuation is based on a target P/B multiple of 1.3x, which remains below the bank’s historical average of approximately 1.5x.

Best-in-class asset quality remains a core strength: Asset quality continues to be one of ACB’s key investment pillars. The bank remains among the strongest performers in our coverage universe, with non-performing loans consistently maintained at around 1% and loan loss coverage sustained above 100%. This reflects ACB’s prudent underwriting standards and conservative provisioning approach, which we believe provide a meaningful buffer against ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Earnings recovery expected to normalize in 2026: Following two years of below-trend earnings growth, we expect ACB’s pre-tax profit to recover to VND 22.3tn in 2026, representing growth of 14.2% YoY. While net interest margin (NIM) pressure is likely to persist in the near term, we expect this to be offset by resilient fee income growth (+14.4% YoY) and a significant decline in credit costs (-35.7% YoY), supporting overall earnings normalization.

Attractive valuation relative to fundamentals: ACB is currently trading at 1.07x 2026E P/B, materially below its long-term historical average of around 1.5x. In our view, the current valuation already reflects the weak earnings growth seen during 2024–2025. As profit growth is expected to return to double digits in 2026, we believe the stock offers meaningful re-rating potential.

As POW’s share price has risen 10% since our previous update, we downgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY) while maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 16,000/share, implying an upside of 11%.

Investment thesis

Domestic gas-fired generation should remain a stable pillar of Vietnam’s power supply in 2026, supported by the return of El Niño conditions. In contrast, alternative power sources remain either weather-dependent or reliant on imported inputs.

The Nhon Trach 3&4 project provides a stronger earnings foundation, having secured minimum contracted output (Qc) equivalent to approximately 65% of its multi-year average generation level.

Following the share price correction from its end-March 2026 peak, we upgrade HDG to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform), with a revised 12-month target price of VND 29,000/share (previously VND 31,300), implying 13% upside. The lower TP reflects more conservative assumptions for the Infra 1 power plant and delays in sales recognition at the Hado Green Lane project.

Short-term earnings drag, long-term normalization: HDG recorded a VND 193bn provision expense in 1Q26 related to potential retroactive adjustments at the Infra 1 plant. This reflects a prudent stance amid evolving regulatory guidance from EVN. We view these charges as non-recurring, as they are limited to the period between COD and receipt of the Completion Acceptance Certificate (CCA).

Emerging growth drivers: Earnings recovery is expected to be supported by (i) renewed sales momentum at Hado Charm Villas (after muted activity in 2025), and (ii) commissioning of the La Trong plant, targeted for 3Q26.

Reduced FX risk: The conversion of EUR-denominated debt at the 7A wind power project into VND has lowered foreign exchange exposure, improving balance sheet resilience.

We raise our SOTP based 12 month target price to VND30,000 from VND25,300, underpinned by a sharp improvement in earnings outlook and a sustained uptrend in global urea prices. We forecast 2026 net income of VND2.25tn (+106% YoY), reflecting stronger margin dynamics and improved earnings visibility. With ~15% upside to our target price and following the recent share price correction, we call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM. At 8.9x 2026E P/E, the stock trades at a compelling discount to its 10 year historical average of 15x, despite a structurally stronger margin profile.

Urea margin expansion supported by uninterrupted production operations and persistently elevated global urea prices.

Full year benefit from VAT rebates in 2026, following implementation of the revised VAT law effective July 2025.

Incremental financial income uplift from higher deposit rates, leveraging the company’s robust net cash position.

IDC is trading at 2026 forward multiples of 8.1x P/E and 2.1x P/B, below the sector averages of 11.9x and 1.83x, respectively. Alongside a portfolio of industrial parks strategically located across Northern and Southern hubs, with 1,441 hectares of leasable land available — ranking third among listed peers — the company offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.6% in 2026. We rate IDC as Outperform, with a 1-year TP of VND 52,900/share based on SOTP method, upside 15.8%.

Expanding its existing land bank, IDC has been approved to invest in three new industrial parks totaling 826.8 hectares — equivalent to 60% of IDC’s current business land bank — with operations expected to commence from late 2026. We believe IDC’s diversified IP portfolio, anchored in key Northern and Southern hubs, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Leasing demand is expected to rebound in 2026. New lease area and MOUs in 2026 are projected to reach 100 hectares (+32% YoY), of which 35 hectares will come from contracts carried over from 2025. We believe that the stronger industrial park leasing demand in 2026 will be driven primarily by new tenants at upcoming parks such as Tan Phuoc 1 and Vinh Quang.

High dividend yield. IDC maintains a 40% dividend payout (including both cash and stock dividends), equivalent to a dividend yield of 8.6% in 2026.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of CTR, with 12-month target price of VND 96,000/share (from VND 102,000 previously), representing 12% upside. Our lower target price reflects our conservative stance amid the current high-interest rate environment.

Infrastructure-driven positioning. As the leading TowerCo, solar energy solutions and telecom construction contractor in Vietnam, CTR is well positioned from the national telecom and power infrastructure development outlook. Further, the company aims to expand its footprints in the residential construction, renewable power plants and overseas markets to both diversify revenue streams and ensure long-term growth sustainability.

Growth diversification: 2026 outlook will no longer be heavily reliant on the infrastructure leasing segment (as in 2024-2025), but will instead be supported by contributions from other segments, driven by 1) focus on BTS (base transceiver station) site-level efficiency, 2) ongoing expansion in Business-to-business (B2B) and Business-to-customer (B2C) and small-and-medium-sized-enterprises (SME) and 3) further penetration in overseas market (“Go Global”).

While revising our 2026 net income forecast upward to VND 9.51 tn (+34% YoY, from VND 9.35 tn), we are lowering our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 110,000 (from VND 115,000) and adjusting our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY). This reflects a more cautious stance given the recent increase in interest rates. At 13.5x 2026E P/E, MWG continues to trade at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 17x.

Grocery profitability inflection point: The transition from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses from 2026 enhances the competitiveness of modern grocery retail.

ICT & CE recovery underway:  Replacement and upgrade demand, further fueled by price increase due to RAM and chip shortage

The IPO of DMX to unlock its fair value, expected in May 2026

We maintain our BUY rating on HPG and revise our 2026-end target price to VND 36,000/share (from VND 35,000/share) to reflect a stronger core earnings outlook, translating to 27.7% upside from the current price, based on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple. The stock remains our favorite choice for an infrastructure investment play and our top pick in Steel for 2026.

2026 is the first full year of operation for the Dung Quat 2 steel mill, with 9 mn tonnes of HRC capacity, as well as the first full year of anti-dumping duties on China HRC. Thus, substantial growth in both the top and bottom line (+40% YoY and 47% YoY for core business, respectively) is expected.

The government’s huge investment plan of VND 38 quadrillion over the next 10 years should boost demand, while competition from imports is limited by safeguarding and anti-dumping duties on key steel products, especially HRC and construction steel.

Implementation of an additional anti-dumping duty on wide-width HRC from 2Q 2026 should provide further protection for HPG’s key products and ensure a long-term favorable industry landscape.