Company Report

For 3Q22, QNS posted net sales and NPAT of VND 2.3 tn (+9% YoY, +4% QoQ) and VND 318 bn (-8.7% YoY, -13% QoQ), respectively. For 9M22, the company reported net sales of VND 6.3 tn (+9.3% YoY) and NPAT of VND 859 bn (-1.2% YoY), respectively.  Soymilk volume reached 207 mn liters (-1.3% YoY), and sugar output came in at 94k tons (+12% YoY) in 9M22. Weaker-than-expected earnings occurred during 9M22 due to: (1) soymilk selling volume decreased -1.3% YoY through 9M22 (-12% YoY in 3Q22); and (2) sugar segment GPM dropped from 20.9% in 9M21 to 16.5% in 9M22.

TRA continues to perform well in 3Q2022, with revenue growth of 5.3% YoY. It is worth noting that, unlike its peer, 3Q21 was not a low base despite the Covid pandemic. After three quarters, TRA is now at 77.5% and 87.8% of its annual revenue and net income targets. The management estimates TRA will achieve VND 2.5 tn (+13% YoY) in revenue and VND 330 bn (+25% YoY) in net profit for 2022. For 2023, we expect that TRA will continue to focus on R&D for new products to capture more market share in the non-traditional-herbal medicine product category. TRA has completed registration for some synthetic drug products transferred from Daewoong Pharmaceuticals and will continue with a new batch of product transfers focusing on promising areas such as blood pressure, diabetes, and cholesterol medications.

Both HSG and NKG incurred considerable declines in revenue of -35% and -50% YoY, respectively. Both companies also posted historical losses due to the decline in export volume and weaker average steel prices. In the near-term, demand likely will continue to be weak in both the export and domestic channels. Steel price may stabilize given Chinese pricing, but a further significant recovery is not anticipated yet given fragile global demand.

GMD maintained strong business results through 3Q22, with an 80% YoY growth in PBT. However, downside risks have been building since 4Q22 as shipping demand is deteriorating rapidly due to weak consumption demand and high inventories. Over the next 3-6 months, we are concerned that there would be little upside catalysts for the stock as earnings growth could reduce significantly in 4Q22 and 2023, and new project volume ramp-ups during 2023 will be impacted while depreciation cost burden rises. We estimate 2022 and 2023 PBT to reach VND 1.3 tn (+61% YoY) and VND 1.33 tn (+3% YoY), respectively. Earnings growth is expected to recover from 2024 when demand improves. We combine our DCF valuation model and PE valuation (target PE of 12x) to reflect recent market valuation, we lower our 1Y-TP to VND 45,200/share (from VND 55,600/share). We downgrade the share from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM.

For 3Q22, KDC reported revenue of VND 3.2 tn (+26% YoY, -7% QoQ) and PBT of VND 60 bn (-58% YoY, -78% QoQ). Edible oil and frozen foods sales were VND 2.5 tn (+19% YoY, -7% QoQ) and VND 580 tn (+41% YoY, -13% QoQ), respectively, driving overall net revenue growth. In addition, other revenue reached VND 112 bn (+550% YoY, +47% QoQ) in 3Q22, as KDC returned to the confectionery segment and expanded its coffee shop chain. KDC’s cumulative 9M net sales and NPAT were VND 9.6 tn (+29% YoY) and VND 370 bn (-24% YoY), respectively, fulfilling 68% and 54% of its sales and NPAT guidance.

We attended the STK analyst meeting on November 16th, and here are our key takeaways. In 3Q22, STK reported a net income decline of -29% YoY, which is much lower than our expectations given that 3Q21 was set at a low base. This is attributable to continued weak demand and a high degree of stockpiling amongst major brands. Management expects inventory to clear significantly during the upcoming holiday season sales, and orders will start coming back in late 2Q23 to prepare for the new Fall/Winter season in 2023. In 2023, we expect net sales and net income to respectively reach VND 2.4 tn (+10.3% YoY) and VND 273 bn (+9% YoY). We lowered our target P/E from 12x to 9x to reflect worse-than-expected earnings growth due to slowdown in demand until 1H23, which yields an updated 1Y target price of VND 29,700/share (+6.6% upside). Our rating for the stock is MARKET PERFORM.

In 3Q22, VNM posted revenue and net profit of VND16.0tn (-0.7% YoY, +7.7% QoQ) and VND2.3tn (-21.5% YoY, +10.5% QoQ), respectively. For 9M22, the company delivered revenue of VND44.9tn (flat YoY) and NPAT of VND6.7tn (-20.2% YoY). Given the performance over 9M22, we cut our NPAT for 2022F by 4.2% to VND9.0tn (-15.3% YoY) and leave that for 2023F largely unchanged. For 2023F, we expect 6.4% and 15.7% YoY growth for the top and bottom-lines, respectively; with the higher growth on the bottom line due primarily to lower input costs. As a dairy company with management’s prudent style, VNM has limited to no direct risk to the existing headwinds in the property and corporate bond markets. Further, with a net cash position of VND13tn (c.USD52mn) as at end-3Q22, the company should benefit from rising interest rates to a degree. With an improving earnings outlook from 4Q22 onward, VNM should post better performance, as it could exit the period of earnings decline in 2021-2022.

Net profit in 3Q22 recorded a three-year high. BMP posted net sales and NPAT of VND 1.5 tn (+184% YoY, -4% QoQ) and VND 176 bn (+21% QoQ) respectively. Due to the COVID-19 lockdown, 3Q21 set a low base effect (a net loss of VND 26 bn). GPM increased to 28% in 3Q22, up from a low base of 4.5% in 3Q21 due to a drop in PVC input prices. ASP for BMP remained flat QoQ in 3Q22, while PVC resin prices fell -31% since 2Q22 to $900-1,000 USD/tonne, which is -35% lower than the average price in 2021. With lower PVC resin prices and a flat ASP, we believe BMP’s 4Q22 GPM will remain high. We forecast BMP net sales and NPAT in 2022 to be VND 5.7 tn (+26% YoY) and VND 655 tn (+206% YoY) respectively.

MWG reported revenue of VND32tn (+32% YoY, -7% QoQ) and net income of VND907bn (+15% YoY, -20% QoQ) for 3Q22. Given the 3Q21 low base when the company suffered from lockdown activities in provinces within Southern Vietnam, 3Q22 net income growth of 15% YoY was below our expectations. This could be attributed to the increase in financial and one-off expenses related to the closing of non-performing BHX stores. We expect financial expenses to rise in 4Q22 due to the: (1) trend of higher interest rates, (2) debt restructuring to longer maturity, and (3) VND depreciation. We forecast 4Q22F net income at VND1.67tn (+7% YoY). As such, we reduce our 2022F net income by 6% to VND5.16tn (+5% YoY, from VND5.48tn) and that for 2023F by 18% to VND5.86 (+14% YoY, from VND7.19tn). While earnings of the ICT & CE segments will likely be hurt next year, improvement in the grocery segment (due to the increase in sales and absence of one-off expenses) and smaller FX losses should secure decent earnings growth for 2023F. Despite rolling over our basis to 2023F (from average 2022-23F), we lower our SOTP-based 12-month TP to VND61,000 (from VND87,800) to reflect the cuts to our earnings and target multiples. With 44% upside potential to our new TP, we recommend investors to accumulate the stock despite possible periods of price weakness.  

FPT trades at an attractive FY22E and FY23E P/E of 15x and 12.7x, respectively, on the back of 22%  and 18%  EPS growth under our base case. Meanwhile, peers with an average of 6%  and 15%  EPS growth in 2022 and 2023, respectively, are trading at an average FY22E and FY23E P/E of 17x and 15x. While the IT spending weakness need to be monitored, in light of FPT’s low cost advantage, having the lowest exposure to the EU market compared to peers, a healthy interest coverage ratio, and an abundant net cash position, we remain positive on the stock. We call for Outperform rating on FPT with 12-month SOTP-based TP of VND95,400 representing 31% upside potential. Key risks: extreme recession could negatively impact the domestic & global IT services sector, as well as digital advertising segments.

The container shipping market has reverted to a down cycle after an unprecedented boom, and earnings levels of shipping companies are set to normalize. HAH may not escape this negative trend, as we expect NPATMI to slide through 2024. However, we estimate that the normalized earnings could be 5x higher than pre-Covid levels given the significant capacity expansion. The recent price correction has sent the shares of HAH to below its book value, which we believe to be an interesting entry point for a long-term investment. However, near-term upside would appear to be capped with few catalysts for the shares over the short term. As such, we lower our rating on the shares of HAH to MARKET PERFORM, with a 1Y-TP of VND 38,500/share (target P/E of 4x), implying only 16.8% upside.

According to the most recent update, sales volume of HPG’s construction steel during October dropped significantly to 210k tonnes, the lowest level since March 2021, whereby export and domestic volumes for the month dropped by 73% and 44% YoY, respectively. The volume of billet, pipe, and galvanized steel also dropped by 92%, 21%, and 40% YoY, respectively, to a respective 15k, 57k, and 27k tonnes for October. On the other hand, HRC volume for October remains strong at 269k tonnes (+30% YoY) but it could decrease near-term given the weak consumption of finished flat-steel products. Accordingly, the utilization rate of HPG blast furnaces during October was likely closer to 70%, based on sales volume. Given the rapid deterioration in the overall market, we revise down our 2022F net profit by 16% to VND10.2tn, implying a net loss of VND270bn in 4Q22F. In 2023F, we lower our net profit by 14% to VND10.88tn, which calls for 6.6% YoY growth thanks to a lower forex loss and the drop in coking coal price. 

PVD recently held its 3Q 2022 earnings call, and provided an outlook for the industry in 2023. Global and Vietnamese macroeconomic conditions have greatly evolved, with a higher interest rates and significant economic risks. With our changes in forecasts and discount rates, we arrive at a lower 1Y target price of VND 18,200/share (from VND 23,800/share), reflecting a 2022 and 2023 earnings revision and higher discount rate. We do, however, maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of PVD.

In 3Q22, PHR consolidated net sales was flat at VND 523 bn, while PBT declined to VND 167 bn (-19% YoY).  Cumulatively, 9M22 net sales and PBT were VND 1.13 tn (-10% YoY) and VND 593 bn (+48% YoY).  9M22 revenue and PBT of the parent company were VND 864 bn (flat YoY) and VND 326 bn (+132% YoY), having accomplished 64% and 36% of the annual target. We expect PHR to recognize land compensation income of VND 691 bn in 2022 and VND 207 bn in 2023.  In October, PHR received VND 140 bn for land compensation income. We expect the company to receive the remaining tranche of VND 262 bn in November-December 2022. This should be the main growth driver for PHR this year. With such forecasts, 4Q22 PBT will be around VND 553 bn (+111% YoY), hence supporting the share price in short term. In 2023, earnings are estimated to drop by -31% YoY owing to lower land compensation income.