Company Report

The 2023 business plan was approved, but with two scenarios: HSG’s net profit in 2023F is targeted at VND 100 bn (-40%YoY) under a conservative-leaning plan, where sales volume is assumed to drop -16% YoY to 1.5 mn tons. Under the more bullish scenario, net income is targeted to increase 20% YoY to VND 300 bn if sales volume falls -10% YoY to 1.6 mn tons. In both cases, ASP is assumed at over VND 22 mn/ton, a decline of around -18.5% YoY. The company expects to issue stock dividends for the previous fiscal year, with a maximum rate of 3%.

We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of VCB, with a new 12-month TP of VND103,750 (from VND89,600), based on a 2023E P/B of 2.6x (from 2.3x), as we increase our 2023E PBT by 15% to VND44.6tn (+19.4% YoY). With a historical prudence in lending, VCB is much less prone than peers to be impacted by the elevated risk in the real estate and corporate bond market.

With a critical position in the Vietnamese banking system, a solid and recognizable brand name, and stronger-than-peer earnings growth, we see VCB’s business being protected by a moat. Hence, VCB’s valuation gap relative to the private banks should further widen, assuming continued strong execution.

4Q 2022 revenue increased 16% YoY, while NPAT increased 86% YoY during the last quarter of the year, thanks to strong improvement in EPC/EPCI segment and JV contribution. EPC segment recorded strong results thanks to Dai Nguyet project completion, as well as continuation of large projects such as Gallaf – Batch 3, Shwe Jacket…2022 revenue thus reached VND 16 tn (+ 15.5% YoY), while NPATMI reached VND 772 bn (+28.5% YoY). This is 20% higher than our estimate, with the key upside surprise coming from higher EPC/EPCI profit and profit margin. 2022 EPS was VND 1,212/share, +33% YoY, and translating into a trailing-12 month P/E ratio of 22x.

NPATMI growth is estimated at +47% YoY, driven by the company’s nickel project, as well as a new revenue stream from electricity sales to the Nomura-Haiphong Industrial Zone (NHIZ). The nickel project will generate 23% of the company’s gross profit; whereas 6% is expected to be generated via electricity sales to the IZ since 2023 which could provide another stable cashflow along with PC1’s current hydropower & wind power segment. Additional stable cashflow from power sales to IZ should be useful amid uncertainty risk of borrowing rate. Further, PC1 current interest coverage ratio is 3x which could be still safe per our view. We call for Outperform rating for PC1, with a 1Y TP of VND33,930 offering a 25% upside.

After a strong earnings expansion of 84% YoY in the first 3 quarters of 2022, GMD earnings growth significantly slowed down to +9% YoY in 4Q22, as negatively impacted by weak exports sectors. We expect that economic headwinds will continue to exert pressure on the company’s core earnings in 2023. However, we expect the sale of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port (NHDV) will be a positive factor that support earnings growth, as well as using proceeds to reduce financial burden and invest in new projects. GMD might restructure its business in the highly competitive Haiphong port cluster area, by concentrating volume to the newly built Nam Dinh Vu port (NDV).

HT1’s 2022 net revenue and NPAT was VND 8.9 tn (+26% YoY) and VND 262 bn (-29% YoY), respectively, achieving 102% and 100% of our 2022 in-house forecast. During 4Q22, HT1 reported net sales and NPAT of VND 2.3 tn (+14% YoY, +2% QoQ) and VND 58 bn (+8% YoY, +58% QoQ), respectively. Cement sales volume during 4Q22 totaled 1.7 mn tons (+5% YoY, + 5% QoQ) with ASP remaining flat QoQ at VND 1.3 mn/ton. Cement sales volume during 4Q21 were low due to COVID-19. During 4Q22, cement sales volume decreased 7% compared to 4Q20. This reflects lower construction activity due to the downturn in the real estate market. Profit has bottomed as input coal prices corrected -10% QoQ. As a result, GPM increased to 9.1% during 4Q22 -up from 8.4% during 3Q22.

We expect VIB’s profit before tax to achieve VND 12 tn (+13.5% YoY) with NIM squeeze of 4.62% (-31 bps YoY) due to higher funding cost and asset quality deceleration. Given a high exposure to real estate sector, the ability to service loan could be hurt due to the high interest rate environment. Hence, we think that NPL ratio will pick up to 2.6% in 2023. As a result, we maintain our Market Perform rating for VIB, with a 1Y TP of VND 22,000.

MWG’s financial performance was worse-than-expected during 4Q22, with net income declining by 60% YoY due to: (i) lackluster demand in the context of macroeconomic headwinds; (ii) the 4Q21 high base when the company experienced pent-up consumer demand; (iii) slow delivery of the iPhone 14; and (iv) a sharp increase in interest expense. On the bright side, we estimate 4Q22 PBT margin at BHX to have improved by 0.9pp vs. that in 3Q22 and 2pp vs. that in 1H22. The improved profitability of the grocery segment and the absence of one-off expenses relating to grocery store closures should be the main earnings growth driver for 2023, while the ICT & CE segment should be impacted by rising inflation and unemployment. We forecast 2023E net income at VND4.4tn (+9% YoY, from VND4.7tn), as we factor in larger-than-expected losses from the pharmacy segment. With our revised 2023 financials, we derive a new SOTP-based 12-month target price of VND44,600 (from VND43,500) for the shares of MWG, and maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating.

We update NLG to Market Perform, with our 1Y target price of VND 29,200 (+15.6% potential upside). As such, we revised down our 1Y target price by -30% since our last report by revising the discount rate from 12% to 14% as well as extending the presale progress of NLG key projects such as Waterfront, Waterpoint, NLG Can Tho, among others. With a large percentage of real estate second tier city projects in the company land bank, homebuyer demand for these projects will continue to be affected due to high interest rate mortgages, as well as low transactional liquidity in the market. In 2023, sales and handover of multiple projects (including Akari and Mizuki Park, Izumi, and Southgate) will still be the key momentum for NLG business results. As such, we forecast 2023F net revenue of VND 5.5 tn ($234 mil USD, +26% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 930 bn ($39 mil, +7.6% YoY). With a strong backlog of nearly VND 17 tn ($723 million USD) at the end of 2022 (mostly coming from mid-end housing projects), NLG earnings should be gradually allocated over the next upcoming years (2023-2025).

We update KDH rating to Market Perform, with a revised 1Y target price of VND 30,500 (+19.8% potential upside). As such, we revised down our 1Y target price by -26% since our last report, as we revised the cash flow from sales progress of recurring real estate projects and apply a more prudent discount rate for potential projects in the future. Among our coverage, we determine that KDH has some advantages compared to other developers, such as the company’s land plots located in District 2, 9, and Thu Duc area, which usually has a higher absorption rate compared to other second tier areas. Not to mention, KDH project execution has been proved over the years which create a strong believe for home buyers. In addition, KDH clean bank legal status projects and good financial health, can also help the company to withstand difficult market conditions.

Continued double digit growth for third year in a row. For 2022, Traphaco posted revenue of VND 2.4 tn (USD 102 mn, +11% YoY), NPAT of VND 293 bn (USD 12 mn, +11% YoY), and NPATMI of VND 269 bn (USD 11mn, +11% YoY). Non-herbal medicine category grew at faster pace than herbal medicine. But we expect to see single-digit growth for 2023. Even though Traphaco possesses a strong product portfolio with potential for growth, we are concerned about weak economic conditions affecting sales of preventive medicine and supplements. We lowered our 2023 revenue forecast to VND 2.6 tn (USD 111 mn, +8% YoY) due to worries over weakening demand. NPATMI is expected to reach VND 306 bn (USD 13 mn, +13% YoY) with the assumption of slight increase in cost of goods and reduction in SG&A expense to conserve profit level. Our new target price is VND 95,000/share, which based on a mix of our DCF methodology and target P/E of 12x. Given the 8% potential ROI (counting 3% dividend yield), we maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of TRA.

During 4Q22, VHC reported a net sales and net profit decline of -7.8% and -58.2% YoY, respectively – falling well short of our estimates as resultant of the accelerating pangasius ASP decline.

Near-term, we still expect exports to China will serve as the growth driver for the sector, while exports to other major markets, such as the US and EU, remain sluggish. During 2023, we expect VHC to post net sales and net profit of VND 11.1 tn (-16% YoY) and VND 1.4 tn (-28% YoY) respectively. Our 1Y target price for the shares is VND 63,000/share (+6% upside). We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for the shares of VHC.

Both HSG and NKG posted losses during 4Q22 of -VND 680 bn and -VND 356 bn, which were lower compared to 3Q22 losses due to reduced inventory provision pressure. However, the losses remained huge by historical standards resulting from low utilization rate of between 60%-65%, and a between 15%-18% QoQ decrease in ASP.

For 2023, we expect a decline in demand of finished-flat steel products due primarily to the export channel given the high base during the first half of 2022. The margin of steel companies can improve due to the recovery in HRC prices which should lead to a reversal in inventory losses. Nonetheless, weak demand could make it more difficult for steel companies to pass along the increase in input costs to output prices, like over the 2020-2021 period. 

Decreasing net debt/equity ratio could save QTP from the risk of rising borrowing costs.  At 2022, the total debt balance dropped significantly to VND 1 tn from VND 2.2 tn at 2021. An estimated -47% YoY decline in interest costs due to a reduced debt load is supportive for solid earnings for 2023. With +3.6% NPAT growth estimate for 2023, QTP has a safe dividend yield of 10%. The first payment of 5% on par will be made in 09-Mar-2023 and the ex-dividend date was 23-Feb-2023. Coupled with a 1Y TP of VND17,900, the shares of QTP offer an upside of 20% allowing us to reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares.